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Tarik Skubal and the Tigers each rolled the dice. His surgery clouds the future for both.

SDF StaffBy

This is certainly not the worst-case scenario. Yet, it’s a reality that Tarik Skubal – and the Detroit Tigers – always had to be prepared to accept.

Skubal and the Tigers entered into an uneasy limbo this season, Skubal knowing he’d be just six months from a payday approaching $500 million by not entertaining long-term extension talks – and the Tigers potentially left holding the bag if they didn’t trade him.

So, when the club announced Monday, May 4 that Skubal will be undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow, both parties could do little but grimace at the ramifications.

Both sides assumed risk, and each will take a hit. Skubal’s recovery will determine how big that will be.

For the Tigers? This significantly dents their chances in this all-in year, the last season they’ll employ the back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner before he plays the rich and desperate against each other this winter and wins Major League Baseball’s equivalent of Powerball.

Tarik Skubal will be lost well into the second half of the season due to surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow.

For Skubal? Well, this is not Tommy John surgery heading into a walk year, nor a concerning shoulder or rotator cuff malady and certainly not something career-threatening such as certain strains of thoracic outlet syndrome.

Yet, he will be sidelined into the second half, his dreams of a third consecutive Cy Young Award dashed. He will take into his walk year not a major league-leading strikeout total but rather a concerning number like 15 or 17 in the “Games Started” column.

Not exactly what suitors want to see when doling out the largest contract in history to a free agent starting pitcher.

Suddenly, Skubal and the Tigers will have to imagine life without him on the mound until, say, Aug. 1. That would leave him roughly 10 to 12 starts down the stretch to both reestablish his market – and push the Tigers back into the playoffs.

That latter part has been more complicated than Detroit imagined.

The Tigers are 18-17, in large part because they’ve lost 14 of 20 away from Comerica Park, and also because they’ve lost a fair amount of pitching to the IL already. From All-Star Casey Mize to serviceable Reese Olson to ancient Justin Verlander, the infirmary is bursting with starters already.

That said, almost any team can conjure an injury sob story. Despite the startling contributions from rookie Kevin McGonigle – on his way to Rookie of the Year honors and an All-Star nod with his .315 average and .884 OPS – the Tigers have played unevenly thus far.

And find themselves in a surprisingly thick AL Central race.

All five teams are within three games of each other – even the 15-20 Minnesota Twins, who are aiming to contest a 162-game season minus a bullpen. Nearing the end of the first quarter, it’s a division where separation seems elusive.

In that vein, the Tigers should consider themselves fortunate that owner Christopher Illitch loosened the purse strings and OK’d a $115 million investment in Framber Valdez, who has been his typically steady self, aveaging nearly six innings a start with a 3.35 ERA.

Nope, not Skubal numbers. But enough to keep Detroit afloat.

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And as Skubal joins Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene and Los Angeles Dodgers closer Edwin Diaz on the recovery road from surgery to remove loose bodies, that’s as good as Detroit can hope for right now. Nor can they rely on significant help from within (the top starters in their minor league system are at least a year away) or the trade market (not when roughly 25 teams are loosely contending in this year of parity).

So it’s Framber and Jack, and Tarik, please hurry back.

Mize should eventually rejoin the fray, though adductor strains can be testy. Keider Montero will have to continue throwing the ball well, though his track record suggests he be additive value from a sixth starter role than a guy you’re relying on.

And who are we kidding? None of them are Skubal, who in his first seven starts saw dips in his strikeouts per nine innings (from 11.1 to 9.3) and adjusted ERA (187 to 161). It’s likely his elbow’s been barking for a minute, before it became publicly known after he left his most recent start.

And now it’s surgery, rehab, build back up, get back on the mound – and see exactly where the Tigers are in the standings. Shoot, if the bottom falls out, Skubal himself could be on the trade market, though dealing for him by the Aug. 3 deadline may purely be a buyer beware situation if he hasn’t returned yet.

What a bummer, for all involved.

Skubal and the Tigers both knew this was a potential outcome. You also can’t fault them for going all-in, in their own ways.

Now, a pitcher’s pot of gold and a city’s championship hopes must be put on hold, dampening what was to be a glorious summer in the D.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What does Tarik Skubal surgery mean? Pitcher’s Detroit Tigers future

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