Strange things can happen in Formula 1. Just ask Max Verstappen, who couldn’t believe his luck when McLaren handed him a way into the 2025 title fight on a silver platter. Although he eventually missed out by two points to Lando Norris, he was essentially battling with one hand behind his back in an inferior car.
But this year’s fight has a distinctly different feel to it. Dominant championship leader Kimi Antonelli has shown fewer, if any, signs of weakness. Mercedes has executed race weekends at a high level – as opposed to rival Ferrari, for example – and it appears to have nixed the most pressing reliability gremlins with the power unit.
Over the European summer, Mercedes was starting to field questions over its lack of development compared to its peers, with a string of four consecutive qualifying defeats starting to make things uncomfortable for Toto Wolff as both Ferrari and McLaren made huge strides with their car.
Did Mercedes, which will only bring significant upgrades to Malaysia in two weeks, get a bit too comfortable courtesy of its early-season dominance?
“I don’t think I am in the fight” – Russell
Antonelli’s return to winning ways, first with an emotional and staggeringly crushing home victory in Monza and then a slightly more fortunate win in Madrid, has put those questions to bed. After 14 grands prix, Antonelli leads team-mate George Russell by 81 points, with Lewis Hamilton now falling behind triple digits (101) and Norris by 106.
It means Antonelli’s biggest threat is now supposed to come from within, but while Russell has stepped up his form in recent weeks with driving style tweaks, it is clear the Briton has no real answer for Antonelli. And even if he were to match his younger team-mate, he is no longer even daring to dream of closing the 81-point deficit.
“I’m not going to say it’s over, but it’s exceptionally unlikely that I’m in this fight,” Russell conceded after only managing fifth at the Madring. “I’m not even thinking about being in the fight because I don’t think I am in the fight.
“It almost just allows me to focus race by race and just try and win as many as possible. What will be, will be. That’s where we are right now.”
Kimi Antonelli and George Russell, Mercedes
Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images
Earlier this year, it felt Russell was trying to play mind games when he put the onus on 20-year-old Antonelli to bring it home. Now it sounds like he really means it.
If there’s no more threat from within for Antonelli, then a late push from Ferrari and McLaren seems like the biggest hurdle.
Speaking to Autosport earlier this month, Ferrari team boss Fred Vasseur vowed his team would push until the end with upgrades, because it also stands the team in good stead for 2027. McLaren made similar comments.
Antonelli and Mercedes have been “phenomenal” – Hamilton
But to the frustration of Hamilton, who had been splitting Antonelli and Russell in the championship this summer, the Scuderia has thrown away too many points with poor race weekend execution, whether in qualifying or the grand prix. A brake failure at the start of the Spanish Grand Prix has now further knocked the wind out of the seven-time world champion’s sails.
“Mercedes this year, I think they’ve done a phenomenal job and they deserve it,” Hamilton said as he conceded defeat on Sunday, following similar comments after a frustrating Italian Grand Prix.
“We’ve just lost so much ground to them [Mercedes] on points. It’s tough. I’m giving it everything I can, but sometimes it’s just not enough. You need all the other stuff to come together.”
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari
Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images
Meanwhile, all reigning world champion Norris could do was doff his cap at his likely successor given the Italian’s age and lack of experience.
“He’s leading by 80 points because he’s doing an incredible job,” Norris acknowledged. “He’s beating a much more experienced team-mate, and a decent team-mate. Pretty phenomenal.
“I think it’s cool to see someone so young doing such an incredible job and more than likely go on and win the championship.
“He’s been impressive since the first race this year. Very few mistakes. He’s not driving like it’s his second year in F1, that’s for sure.”
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– The Autosport.com Team
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