While the theory of Mercedes’ Formula 1 title favouritism ahead of the dawn of the championship’s latest era has been proven correct, the name at the top of the drivers’ standings is somewhat of a surprise.

Many would have believed that George Russell would be the man to beat given his performances with the Silver Arrows during what was a barren period in the ground-effect years between 2022 and 2025, especially with the pre-conceived ideas of dominance with the new power units largely realised across the first four races of the 2026 campaign.

But Kimi Antonelli has been outstanding in just his second season in F1, leading the charge for the title by 20 points with three wins to his name. Russell, on the other hand, has been out of sorts since winning the first round in Australia.

And with similarities beginning to show between 2025 and the current campaign, can Russell look to Lando Norris’ maiden title triumph for inspiration?

Norris’ early-season struggles as ‘inexperienced’ team-mate shines

For 2025, McLaren entered the year as the favourite after a barnstorming end to 2024 that saw continuous development from a disastrous year prior push Norris chase down Max Verstappen for the title late in the season, albeit ultimately missing out to the Dutchman.

The Briton began with a win in Australia to underline his position as favourite, leading from pole position to take the early advantage. But for the majority of the opening half of the season, things began to unravel.

A particularly rocky spell was accentuated by struggles at the Bahrain Grand Prix four races in, where Norris was a gulf behind team-mate Oscar Piastri, who was racking up the points with multiple victories at the start of his third campaign.

Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Photo by: Mario Renzi – Formula 1 – Getty Images

Round three in Japan before the Middle Eastern stay saw Verstappen provide respite for Red Bull in what was a tough start for the reigning champion, breaking the dominance displayed by McLaren in the opening stages.

It took Norris until round eight at Monaco before he would get his second victory of the season, with just two more coming before the summer break. 

But after a DNF in Zandvoort upon the sport’s return to action, Norris found the upper hand on Piastri as the Australian slipped into a malaise of his own.

Matters were complicated by Red Bull and Verstappen’s resurgence in the second part of the season, the Dutchman taking the fight all the way to the final race of the year in Abu Dhabi before Norris wrapped up his crown. But ultimately, Norris had weathered his personal storm early on to eventually topple Piastri in what was mostly an intra-team battle for honours.

How 2026 is mirroring 2025

Russell finds himself in a similar position after four rounds this term.

A convincing victory from pole in Australia matched pre-season expectations but since then, it has been far from pleasant reading for Russell, comfortably outperformed by Antonelli in China, Japan and – to a much greater extent – Miami.


Much like Norris, Russell has had to wait for his chance for the title after undergoing an extensive F1 education in underperforming machinery, but faces being usurped by a new, younger team-mate.

George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images

McLaren, much like Red Bull last year, had struggles of its own in the first two races but came to the fore in Japan, though Piastri’s ability to replicate Verstappen’s win at Suzuka was taken away by an ill-timed safety car – though Antonelli’s pace was threatening in any case.

Norris continued that improved form for the Papaya squad into Miami, yet had no answer on grand prix Sunday for the Italian’s speed – while Russell couldn’t feature in the race for the podium.

Now, Russell must look to Norris’ own turnaround last year as proof that not all is lost. With 18 rounds still remaining, the 20-point gap is relatively minuscule. Yet, the form shown thus far will be of concern for Russell.

McLaren could be a thorn in Mercedes’ side as the season progresses – as could Ferrari and Red Bull for that matter – so it’s not a carbon copy of 2025 in that there are more variables that could intervene to prevent a Mercedes-only party.

There is also the impact of the heightened development race at the start of the cycle of the new regulation set that could flip the form order upside down across the campaign – though Mercedes was the only outfit of the front-running four not to add a major upgrade package in Miami and could put distance over its rivals with its anticipated add-ons in Canada.

But with that as a threat, it is imperative that Russell finds his form quickly. A strong result in Montreal would stop the bleeding, provide a momentum kick, remind Antonelli that the Briton is on his tail and quickly stop any difficult lines of questioning in the media.

An extended winless run could be enough for Antonelli to stretch into an unassailable lead even before the summer break, taking any pressure off the teenager’s shoulders that could come into play if a title battle becomes tense later in the year. Russell must at least position himself in such a way to create an uncomfortable run-in for his team-mate.

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– The Autosport.com Team

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