UFC White House is the promotion’s most important show of the year and no matter what happens, history is sure to be made.
Will Sunday’s once-in-a-lifetime event be a triumph for the UFC, a culmination of its unbelievable rise from outlaw attraction to mainstream juggernaut? Or will it be plagued by logistical issues? Will the championship fights deliver or just leave us wanting more with the future of the lightweight and heavyweight contender pictures still murky? Will a new star emerge with the opportunity to perform on platform no fighter has ever experienced?
We got plenty of questions, so sit down with your MMA Fighting pals Guilherme Cruz, Mike Heck, Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew as we do our best to figure out what to expect when the octagon lands on the South Lawn.
1. What is your blurb-length preview for UFC White House?
Cruz: MMA fighters go to the White House for some fist-fighting on the lawn. Is normal.
Heck: It will be a fun spectacle with some very good fights, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t UFC White House’d out at this point.
Lee: I speak for all Canadians when I say, from up here, this whole shindig looks completely absurd… absurdly awesome!
Martin: A totally non-political event with some great fights happening at the White House on Donald Trump’s birthday!
Meshew: If you’ve tuned out for months, this is gonna be great. If you haven’t, you’re ready for this to be over with.
2. How high does Ilia Topuria’s star rise with a win?
Meshew: In actuality? Not that much. Ilia Topuria is already one of the biggest stars in the sport, and he’s a massive favorite over Justin Gaethje, who is popular but not a star. This isn’t the kind of opportunity that can launch him to McGregor-level status. Still, it will be good for him to slaughter someone on a highly watched event.
But in his head? He will be the biggest star in MMA history, perhaps the history of the world. Other famous people will pale in comparison to him. The Pope would be lucky to get a visit from him. All should cower and bow before his greatness and fame. We’re fortunate to even have eyeballs with which to see a person of his god-emperor status.
Cruz: If Topuria does what most of us expect him to do, which means knock out Gaethje to unify the UFC lightweights belts, he will become an even bigger star. He’s already a popular figure in the MMA bubble, and getting the W on a night that pretty much every non-sports outlet will be paying attention, Topuria will make headlines everywhere around the globe.
If he pulls a Maximus Decimus Meridius and shouts “ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?” next to Gaethje’s unconscious body, I’m losing it.
Heck: In today’s UFC, it’s going to be very difficult for Topuria to be a bigger star, and while this one will likely get some new eyeballs on him, it’s kind of a lose-lose for him.
You know how the fanbase can be, right? If he wins, well, “He was supposed to win, this isn’t the best guy in the division,” and all of the other things. If he loses, the “fraud check, overrated, wasn’t that good to begin with, he lost to a guy he was supposed to destroy” comments will certainly fill out the social media space. Is he in the best spot on the card? Absolutely. Will a win over Gaethje get him headlining in Spain in his next fight? Nope.
What it does do is set him up for a fight that will boost that profile: Either against Makhachev—which I can do without, honestly, but it’ll probably happen—or the true, correct fight: Arman Tsarukyan.
Lee: It might not take him to the next level yet, but it gets him one step closer to being the face of the UFC. One could argue he’s already there, but my guess is his Q-Rating is still a notch below the likes of Jon Jones, Alex Pereira, and even Islam Makhachev. It doesn’t help that Topuria had to take time off recently to deal with personal matters, especially when you consider that this game passes fighters by faster than ever.
That said, one big knockout, one memorable moment, on this stage? The sky is the limit for how far this win could boost Topuria’s profile when it’s all said and done.
Martin: Ilia Topuria is already a superstar with the potential to become the face of the UFC over the next couple of years, assuming he can stay healthy and keep winning. Headlining the card at the White House is obviously a big deal, but it almost feels like the spectacle of this event is going to dwarf any individual fighter’s performance unless something truly crazy happens.
If Topuria can dismantle and finish Gaethje early, that might allow him to convince the UFC to allow him to pursue a third world title at welterweight but in reality, almost everybody expects him to win so anything outside of a flawless performance might actually hurt him in the long run.
3. How much weight do you put on Alex Pereira becoming a three-division champion?
Martin: Alex Pereira winning a third title is definitely a cool accomplishment, but context matters and let’s not forget he’s competing for an interim belt and not an undisputed championship because his opponent took out Tom Aspinall’s eyes in his previous fight. If Pereira can knock out Ciryl Gane and then do the same to Aspinall, that definitely means more to his overall legacy.
But the infatuation with winning belts across multiple divisions has been diminished so much because there are now 11 fighters who have accomplished that feat. Before Conor McGregor did it in 2016, there were only two in UFC history. Pereira winning three sets him apart from everybody else, but that might also convince other two division champions to try and do the same (Ilia Topuria, I’m looking at you) and whatever happened to just defending the belt a bunch of times? Miss those days.
Meshew: It’s definitely not nothing, but it’s also definitely not what everyone is going to trip over themselves to proclaim it to be.
The point of a title is supposed to be to signify that you are the best in the world at that particular weight class. Pereira’s middleweight title was valid (if a bit weak as he never successfully defended it), and his light heavyweight title is bulletproof. But beating the No. 3-ranked heavyweight in the world (who should be No. 4) does not make you the best heavyweight in the world. It makes you the No. 3 heavyweight in the world. That’s just math.
If Pereira wins, I’ll view this akin to Anderson Silva’s demolition of Forrest Griffin—a good win, but not “The Best”—it just happens to have a shiny trinket attached because the UFC is doing whatever the hell it wants these days.
Cruz: It’s incredible. We’ve had fighters in the past that I would be confident in picking to win titles in three divisions, but they were living in an era where the UFC wasn’t that into in switching weight classes. Tell me, couldn’t Anderson Silva have beaten Randy Couture at heavyweight? “The Natural” was the heavyweight champion when Silva reigned at middleweight, and the 205-pound champ at the time was Forrest Griffin. We all remember how that one ended.
Back to Pereira, he’s a unique individual. The things he has able to do and in such short amount of time will never be replicated, and that alone will inevitably earn him a spot on the UFC Hall of Fame—and probably a biopic. Gane is often overlooked because he’s fallen short in his chances to win the UFC title twice before, but he’s no easy match. Some will downplay Pereira’s accomplishment should he win as not being as massive as if he had beaten Jon Jones or Tom Aspinall. I agree, but it’s still huge nonetheless.
Heck: As Damon said, context matters, but I’m looking at it in a completely different way. I will certainly put a good amount of weight on it, because it’s sick! Pereira pretty much cleaned out 205, outside of Carlos Ulberg, and he straight smashed Magomed Ankalaev with as much ease as we’ve ever seen in a title fight. That was probably the most impressive feat of his Hall of Fame career and I was fine with him going up.
We also have to take into account that heavyweight is, well, not good. But he’s fighting a guy who has been in a lot of title fights, won an interim belt, is a tremendous athlete, and one of the pretty damn good guys in the division (and a guy that was having success against Aspinall before Eyepokegate. This will be huge, and set him up for a ginormous fight with Aspinall, maybe, because who knows when he’s getting back in there with his eye injury.
Lee: It’s not doing much for me. Yeah, I’m going to be that guy.
He’s not fighting the real No. 1 heavyweight. He’s not fighting the real No. 2 heavyweight. He’s not fighting for a real title. So why do we have to pretend this is… real?
Anyone who has listened to me blather about MMA for more than five minutes knows that one of my favorite axioms in combat sports is this: Belts are props. Props that are usually well-deserved and hard-earned, but that’s not always the case. If a title is supposed to mean that a fighter has conquered a division, then how can that significance apply to this situation?
Pereira rules and him being fast-tracked into big fights is fun as (Mike) heck, but insisting it’s more historically important than it actually is is just silly.
4. What’s the best-case scenario for how it all plays out?
Lee: Nobody loses via TKO (swallowed a bug).
Look, I’m all for chaos, and there’s plenty of opportunity for that, but I’ve got to think about the fighters here, and for all the guys that signed up for what is sure to be memorable evening, let’s hope nothing too crazy happens.
(I’m also hoping everyone got paid 10 times what they normally make, but we all know that’s not a thing.)
So please, all I’m asking is that all of Dana White and co.’s ambitious plans actually play out, the fighters are allowed to do what they do best, and nobody gets bonked on the head by a hastily attached chunk of claw debris.
Martin: Seven fights, seven finishes and at least one barnburner to steal the show.
People complain, but the UFC White House matchmaking is stellar and there’s real potential for violence in all of these fights. Perhaps Bo Nickal’s matchup against Kyle Daukaus is the only one where you would favor a decision over a knockout or submission, but it’s really tough to believe the rest of the card doesn’t play out with some jaw-dropping finishes.
There’s going to be a lot of new eyeballs watching the UFC, perhaps for the first time ever because this is happening at the White House, so an exciting card from start to finish is the dream scenario.
Meshew: Personally, I’m hoping for full chaos. Thunderstorms, a plague of locusts, at least one streaker, the works. This is a carnival event, so let’s get weird.
Diego Lopes and Steve Garcia are going to get busy. Then after that, I’m pulling for every funny outcome. Kyle Daukaus upsetting Bo Nickal, Michael Chandler pulling off the upset, Derrick Lewis KOing Hokit and then taking his pants off on the White House lawn, Aiemann Zahabi beating Sean O’Malley, Ciryl Gane winning the most boring fight of all time, and then Gaethje pulling of the miracle.
Can you imagine all that, plus the venue floods? That could sustain me for a lifetime.
Cruz: As Damon said, the sport needs one of those spectacular nights of finishes to make the most of the opportunity to draw new fans. For me personally, even if we don’t get all fights ending in finishes—we likely won’t and I’m looking at you both, O’Malley and Zahabi—I’m just hoping for no drama.
No-contests due to accidental eye-pokes? Five-minute breaks and a fighter puking after a low blow? We need a normal night of fights. It will be fun and exciting at times because we’ll have Topuria vs. Gaethje and Lopes vs. Garcia to make up for lost time while UFC tells “the story of America” (or whatever non-political version that is convenient) in between fights.
Heck: Obviously, the fights delivering matters more than the results. That’s just how it is these days. So that, plus the two title fights ending early, and Gaethje somehow pulling off the miracle in the octagon with a knockout over Topuria will make it an unforgettable card.
We all know what this is, and I’m not here to talk about any of that because I’m viewing it through the lens of it being super cool for the fighters competing. That’s all that matters to me, and quite frankly, for the real, hardcore MMA fans who will be watching UFC Baku the following week when most of the others won’t watch another card all year. With Lopes vs. Garcia setting the tone, hopefully everyone else follows.
5. How can the UFC top this event in the second half of 2026?
Heck: In terms of spectacle and pageantry, nothing will. Even Conor McGregor’s return in a few weeks won’t touch this.
How they can top this overall is by, you know, giving fans the fights they want. Give us Ilia Topuria vs. Arman Tsarukyan if “El Matador” wins. I’ll be happy to let the Islam fight go. Truly.
Give fans a second McGregor fight this year, as well. If it’s the last fight on his deal, who cares? Let him fight it out, and if he wants to stay, and if you truly want him to stay by paying him, then he’ll stay. If not, you’ve proven you can be successful without him. Get some title fights on the books, for crying out loud! Too many of the world’s best fighters have been on the sidelines this year.
And most importantly, keep the promotional efforts high once this and UFC 329 are over. Try and do fun stuff! If you do that, all will be well.
Lee: Bring Ivan Erslan back so he can fight Ibo Aslan. No? Just me? Fine.
Yeah, they’re not topping this spectacle anytime soon. McGregor’s return is big, Pereira potentially fighting Tom Aspinall is big, and even Amanda Nunes vs. Kayla Harrison has some juice. But White House big? Forget second half of 2026, I’m not sure if the UFC tops this one for a while (assuming everything goes well, see Question 4).
Martin: Assuming McGregor actually makes it to the octagon at UFC 329, he might single-handedly top the White House card with his long awaited return after five years away. Early ticket sales prove McGregor is still the biggest draw in the sport by a wide margin and the interest in his comeback is going to be astronomical.
As long as McGregor vs. Holloway 2 happens, the UFC could almost coast through the rest of the year and feel like 2026 is a huge success.
Meshew: UFC Colosseum: Zuck vs. Elon.
Cruz: It can’t. Nothing will ever top a UFC event at the White House in terms of spectacle, but that’s not a problem.
Every single fighter that comes out of that card looking good after a win will mean big business for the UFC the next time they fight, and that’s enough. The promotion had unprecedented years with Ronda Rousey, Conor McGregor and Brock Lesnar pulling massive pay-per-view numbers, and getting Topuria, Pereira and Hokit back to the octagon later in 2026 should make Paramount+ and TKO investors happy.
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