Alex Pereira is out and the light heavyweight division moves on.
One can’t blame Pereira for vacating his belt and moving up to heavyweight for the chance at becoming the first-ever three-division (*cough* interim *cough*) UFC champion, but it does put Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg in a strange place. The UFC 327 headliners vie for Pereira’s vacated title, though it’s unclear how they’ll be viewed by night’s end.
Prochazka has already fallen twice to Pereira, so will fans question his legitimacy even if he becomes champion a second time? Will the lesser known Ulberg register as more than a blip to the casual crowd if he doesn’t beat the man to become the man? Is it assumed Pereira can come back and take the title anytime he wants?
It’s an unfair question and one that can’t be answered Saturday. What we will find out is if Prochazka’s berserker style has him poised to put on a show once again and if Ulberg is as well-versed in ka-razy as his Czech opponent. Because that one ain’t going five rounds.
In other main card action, more light heavyweights jockey for position as the undefeated Azamat Murzakanov takes on one-time middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa, and veterans Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker work to stay in the contender circle. Plus, Curtis Blaydes looks to stop the rise of heavyweight prospect Josh Hokit, and Cub Swanson has his, er, swan song against Nate Landwehr in the featherweight opener.
Where: Kaseya Center in Miami
When: Saturday, April 11. The three-fight early preliminary card begins at 5:30 p.m. ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 7 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 9 p.m. ET with the entire event streaming live on Paramount+. Portions of the event will be simulcast on CBS, including the last hour of the prelims and the first hour of the main card.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Rankings)
Jiri Prochazka (3, P4P-17) vs. Carlos Ulberg (4)
I have no idea how Carlos Ulberg can contain Jiri Prochazka for 25 minutes.
We almost saw Prochazka lose a decision to Khalil Rountree, but sure enough, once he felt the urgency of the situation, Prochazka flipped the switch and snatched the win with his overwhelming offense. As long as there’s time on the clock, he has a chance to make something special happen. That’s not to take away from Prochazka’s incredible skill, because you can’t get away with the insane stuff he does without having a solid foundation. His lunatic stylings are not without substance.
If Prochazka has to be KO’d to lose, Ulberg can certainly deliver. Ulberg hasn’t always been the best at pressing the action, but he knows his way around a counter shot and he could turn Prochazka’s aggression against him in the blink of an eye. A steady diet of body and leg kicks could also frustrate Prochazka and force a mistake that Ulberg can capitalize on.
I’d love to see Ulberg go toe-to-toe with Prochazka, even if it’s a suboptimal strategy. Better that than have Prochazka dictate the action and eventually walk him down, no? Why wait for Michael Myers to track you down when you can take the fight to him? Be bold, Ulberg!
Prochazka by knockout. And Again.
Azamat Murzakanov (8) vs. Paulo Costa
So I’m watching tape for this matchup and the oddest comparison struck me:
Azamat Murzakanov is Joanna Jedrzejczyk with knockout power.
If you haven’t dug deep into Murzakanov’s film and just looked at his build and his results, you might think he’s a compact force of nature who finishes his opponents with looping bombs. But no! Like the great Joanna Champion, Murzakanov is a master of controlling distance and exploiting the slightest holes in his opponents’ defenses. Despite being under 6-feet and having average reach for a light heavyweight, Murzakanov is comfortable fighting from outside… at least to start. Once he locks in, he pushes forward with a menacing jab and throws knees up the middle. Then Murzakanov breaks grown men down until they turtle up and wait for the referee to pull him off of them.
Now, do I think he can finish Paulo Costa? Sure, why not? I’ve mocked some of Costa’s performances and thrown shade at his supposed knockout power, but he is solid defensively and has always had a firm chin, so Murzakanov might have to take a risk to make a statement. A statement he might need if he hopes to vault to the front of the contender line.
Murzakanov by second-round knockout.
Curtis Blaydes (6) vs. Josh Hokit
Putting aside Josh Hokit’s antics, he’s a pretty intriguing heavyweight prospect. A plus-athlete with an aggressive wrestling style, the 28-year-old has separated himself firmly from the middle of the pack in a lackluster division. If anything, Hokit might have looked too good in his first two UFC fights and drawn so much attention to himself that he gave the matchmakers no choice but to throw him right into the fire. Depending how Saturday goes, Hokit could feel like this soon:
Win or lose, this should be a learning experience for Hokit. Curtis Blaydes is his most difficult opponent by a considerable degree. Look at the names Blaydes has beaten: Alexander Volkov, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Jailton Almeida… you get the point. Aside from Rizvan Kuniev—who was on an 11-fight unbeaten streak before making his UFC debut—Blaydes rarely fights anyone without a number next to their name.
My big concern for Blaydes? He has a tendency to step on rakes. I haven’t forgotten when he got clobbered by Sergei Pavlovich. Or when he lost to Derrick Lewis as a 4-to-1 favorite. Or when he could have avenged a loss to Francis Ngannou but instead went out in 45 seconds. It feels like the Miami crowd is behind him here, which should be a good thing. Or is it prelude to another flop?
We’re supposed to be positive here. Again, given the quality of Blaydes’ competition, he can’t possibly lose to this version of Hokit if he fights with even a modicum of common sense. Right?
Dominick Reyes (9) vs. Johnny Walker (15)
Two veteran light heavyweights with high-powered offense and suspect chins? Sign me up!
It’s a shame Dominick Reyes didn’t complete his comeback story for the ages by beating Ulberg last time out, because it painted a pretty clear picture of what his ceiling is right now. When he’s the more athletic fighter, he has an advantage; when he’s not, he doesn’t.
I’m not sure what that means for his matchup with Johnny Walker. The Brazilian knockout artist can also check off the plus-athlete box, as we know from some of his more creative finishes. He’s become more measured and well-rounded (one might say, boring) as he’s matured, which is probably for the best as the last thing he should be doing is trade wild shots with the hard-hitting Reyes.
This is the closest fight on the main card, so I’m going with my gut here and leaning towards the younger and rangier Walker to beat Reyes to the punch and finish him with strikes.
Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr
UFC matchmakers, you’ve done your job here. Take it away, Cub Swanson.
After over 40 pro fights, “Killer Cub” is laying down the gloves, and the one thing I can guarantee is it’s going to get emotional in Kaseya Center after the dust settles between Swanson and Nate Landwehr. They’ve picked the perfect dance partner for Swanson, with Landwehr being a classic, no-nonsense, stand-and-bang fighter who is skilled enough to threaten Swanson, but not so dangerous that he’ll end the fight in seconds. This is just the right amount of tension for Swanson’s final fight.
Landwehr always brings it when given the right opponent and while it would be hilarious if we saw ADCC Landwehr show up—believe it or not, Landwehr actually has more submissions wins in the UFC than knockouts—he’s going to do what he was brought here to do: come forward and give Swanson every opportunity to take his head off.
Even if Swanson were to go out on a losing note, anything short of a stretcher-job knockout shouldn’t damper the celebration after he leaves his gloves in the cage. But even at 42, Swanson has retained much of the skill that made him a borderline title challenger for much of his career, and he’s going to use everything he has left to win a back-and-forth battle Saturday night.
Patricio Pitbull (10) def. Aaron Pico (15)
Randy Brown def. Kevin Holland
Mateusz Gamrot (9) def. Esteban Ribovics
Tatiana Suarez (4, P4P-12) def. Loopy Godinez (7)
MarQuel Mederos def. Chris Padilla
Kelvin Gastelum def. Vicente Luque
Charles Radtke def. Francisco Prado
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