Javier’s results in spring have been solid, but his peripherals don’t back it up.
Astros SP Cristian Javier just finished his final outing of the spring. His stat line was solid:
5 innings, 1 earned run, 4 hits, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 solo HR. Threw 40 of his 70 pitches for strikes.
You’d think he had just shown he is ready for the regular season. However, there are a couple of issues with that line of thought:
-
He is still facing lineups with a lot of weak hitters.
-
His velocity on his fastball and sinker are not only below par, but fall as the game goes on.
Now, every pitcher will face a lot of lineups that have backups and minor leaguers in them, and that is the far lesser of the two concerns.
The main issue is that Javier, now nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery, still has not recovered his velocity. To make matters worse, his velocity falls even further as the game goes on.
While he has gotten away with low velocities in spring, when the regular season starts and you have to face quality lineups every start, those velocities will not hold up.
Much as we saw last year with Lance McCullers Jr. as he struggled with his velocity last season, MLB caliber hitters will wait you out, sit on a pitch and punish you when they get it if they have no fear of your ability to beat them with a fastball.
Javier, like McCullers, has tremendous breaking stuff. The impact of that stuff will be negated if there is no fastball to get quick outs with.
While Javier’s stat line today was strong, his velos were not, and they progressively got worse.
Here’s a breakdown of the velocity of Javier’s four-seams/sinkers by inning today (per MLB.com):
1st: 91.7, 91.8, 92.1, 92.6, 93.2, 92.9, 92.4, 92 – Avg 92.3 MPH
2nd: 90.6, 91.6, 91.3, 91.1, 91.3, 90.7, 91.2, 91.2 – Avg 91.1 MPH
3rd: 92, 90.4, 92.1, 91.6, 90.2, 88.9, 89.4, 90.6, 90.5, 91.3 – Avg 90.7 MPH
4th: 92, 91.4, 90.9, 90.7 – Avg 91.3 MPH
5th: 91, 90.1, 89.8, 89.4, 91.4, 89.9, 89.7, 90.1 – Avg 90.2 MPH
For the whole game, he averaged 91.1 MPH. He gave up an absolute rocket HR on a pitch 91.6 upper middle zone to Jordan Walker, who blasted it at 111.3 MPH and 413 FT to CF. Javier loves to live high in the zone. When you get caught at those velos high in the zone, the ball is going to fly very far.
He had a high mark of 93.2 in the 1st, and a low mark of 88.9 in the 3rd.
His final 11 four-seamers & sinkers maxed at 91.4 MPH. Those are not velocities that are going to translate to long term success at the MLB level for a righthanded pitcher.
While dealing with low and inconsistent velocity last season, Javier posted a career high 4.62 ERA in 8 starts after returning from Tommy John surgery. An offseason to continue strengthening his arm and refining his mechanics was supposed to help him regenerate his prior velocity. So far, he looks very much the same as he did last season.
The Astros entered this season expecting to count on Javier to be one of their top three starters. Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai will now take those places behind Hunter Brown.
What can the Astros count on Javier for? Javier has always been a bulldog on the mound. He will battle and fight with every pitch.
Over 162 games, if he can’t regain his velocity and maintain it, is the bulldog in him going to be enough?
Read the full article here
