For generations the leadoff hitter was easy for a manger to identify: A fast guy. A slap hitter. Someone who could be the “spark plug.” Then you stick another guy as the table setter in the second spot. Probably your best hitter third. And your power guy at the four spot.
And in some ways this wasn’t terrible advice to follow. The problem was that those skills needed to be driven by something else: the ability to get on base. That can come from a guy hitting the ball all over the place or from one taking walks. Maybe someone who can do both. They can even hit for power if you want. A home run is one guaranteed RBI. A double from your leadoff hitter means a great opportunity for two, three, and four to drive him in.
It’s not crazy to think that Roman Anthony is the best hitter on the Red Sox in 2026 and they should absolutely bat him leadoff. As a rookie, Anthony hit .292/.396/.463, and while a lot of things in baseball have changed over the years, having a triple slash of 3/4/5 hasn’t. While that is indeed a small sample, FanGraphs is projecting Anthony to put up a .367 OBP which is also nothing to object to.
In the 106 games Jarren Duran started as the leadoff hitter, his line was .255/.323/.418. Which is certainly a step down. Just looking at the time he was the first batter of the game, it was .214/.274/.429, which is another step down. And leading off any inning in 2025? Now we’re down to .202/.280/.360. This is not a slight on Jarren Duran. He’s a really good player! But when your main goal is to reach base, we might be looking at a difference of 100 points of OBP. If Duran is behind Anthony, he can double him home. If Duran is batting at the bottom of the order, Anthony can advance him if he’s on base and the speed might carry the possibly position less Duran all the way around the base path.
Last year the best player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani, hit .282/.392/.622 across the entire season. As the leadoff hitter in 148 games he hit .299/.365/.649. Leading off any inning, including the first, Ohtani posted a .296/.383/.657 line.
I am definitely not saying Roman Anthony is Shohei Ohtani. He’s probably not hitting 50 home runs next year. Or stealing 50 bases. Or leading the league in, likely, anything. He might hang with Shohei in doubles with the big man himself posting 25. Five Red Sox players hit at least 25 doubles last season and Anthony himself had 18. He might have done it if he’d been healthy. But if you drop the slugging a peg or two and think long and hard about the projected .367 OBP, adjust it down a tad, Anthony is still easily clearing a .350 OBP as the first batter of a game.
Dave Roberts is gifted the highest salary team in baseball in the Los Angeles Dodgers. Many of the best players in the game. The literally MVP year-in and year-out across both leagues. He doesn’t wait for table setters to get in place. He makes every single starting pitcher have to face him as many times as possible. It’s a bold choice. It’s aggressive. And it’s a move Alex Cora is right to copy because a little like the starting rotation last year — Crochett followed by a crowd trying to differentiate themselves — the lineup contains a few more good hitters but probably no other great hitters.
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