The San Diego Padres need to slow-play starter Joe Musgrove at the beginning of the 2026 season. Coming off Tommy John surgery in October of 2024, Musgrove is a month shy of 18 months post-surgery. The usual recovery time for TJ is 12-18 months but that is a range that is very individual and Musgrove himself said that in his research for the surgery he was told by other pitchers that they didn’t feel normal until two years removed from the actual operation.
In February, Musgrove had a long interview on the Friar Territory podcast where he outlined his willingness to do whatever it took to be ready to pitch at the end of the season. Starting the season in the rotation wasn’t seen as a must although he specifically said that taking breaks, pushing back his starts and limiting innings or pitches to start the season would all be in the mix.
After his first spring start on March 4 against the Great Britain WBC team, Musgrove reported no physical issues after his 60-pitch performance over three innings and six outs. He felt challenged by the pace with the pitch clock and the intensity of having to compete in a real game-setting versus the controlled settings on the back fields of Peoria Sports Complex.
The real test for recovering pitchers is how they bounce-back after pitching. According to manager Craig Stammen, Musgrove threw a bullpen at some point after his start but it was announced yesterday that there is no scheduled next start for Musgrove. He will be day-to-day with an evaluation each day to see how his arm feels.
When asked how his arm felt, Musgrove replied, “It feels like I had surgery.”
Musgrove’s repertoire
At the end of the 2024 season, when it was clear that Musgrove had been pitching most of the season hurt and was just doing his best until his elbow gave out, it seemed pretty remarkable that he managed a 3.88 ERA when his Baseball Savant page showed a pitcher that shouldn’t have been in MLB; much less get through almost 100 innings pitched with a winning record. He had removed his slider from his pitch mix and added a sweeper.
During his last healthy season, in 2023, Musgrove’s Savant page revealed an effective pitcher that was really successful despite not having elite velocity. Musgrove was a pitcher, working with his six-pitch mix to get hitters out with efficiency and smarts.
In his start on March 4, Musgrove used a seven-pitch mix, bringing back the slider he had removed in 2024 and incorporating the sweeper as well. His fastball velocity averaged 94.1 mph, slightly up from 2023.
Handling the new season
Pushing Musgrove’s start back, allowing his tired arm to fully recover and giving him more time between starts, will probably mean he isn’t ready for Opening Day. That is not a real problem as things stand currently. He was not in line to be the starter on March 26. At most, he would be third in line for the Padres.
He could start the year on the IL but the Padres have plenty of options to keep the team competitive until he is ready to step into the every five or six day rotation. There are two off days in the first eight days of the season and the team can use a fill-in to start a game or allow the other starters to work on normal four days rest.
The “bridge’” pitcher can help
The organization is currently evaluating three pitchers to work as “bridge” pitchers on the team. Stammen, a former pitcher, doesn’t seem to like the term “long-man” and they have used “bridge” instead.
Ron Marinaccio, currently with Team Italy in the WBC, lefty Kyle Hart and Logan Gillaspie are all auditioning for the role and it is possible that two could make the team. Marinaccio and Gillaspie are out of options and will have to be put through waivers if not on the roster.
The starters
With Musgrove out to start the year, both German Marquez and Walker Buehler have a chance to make the roster out of spring. It seems obvious that Randy Vasquez has locked up a spot with his outstanding spring performances. This will have to be decided by March 21, as Buehler has an opt-out on that date. He must be on the roster or allowed to pursue other opportunities.
None of the pitchers vying for the rotation have an ERA below 5.40, but that isn’t a reliable stat to use for evaluation in the spring. The underlying stats on the competitors show that Marquez and Buehler have better stuff and a bit more velocity than Marco Gonzales. And… Tristan McKenzie is a work-in-progress and not a contender.
When he is ready to return, Musgrove will probably be limited in some way. Either an innings limit or longer recovery time between starts would make sense. The bullpen is certainly up to supporting that approach and the “bridge” pitchers would also be available to step in.
Slow-playing the season
Musgrove has repeatedly stated that opening the season as a starter might not be important but ending the season as a starter is very important.
Musgrove wants to play in October. He wants to pitch in playoff games. If the Padres get to that point, they need a healthy and strong Joe Musgrove. We have seen what Playoff Joe looks like. The Friar Faithful should all be patient and support getting that Musgrove back with the Padres.
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