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Time has run out for NBA players hoping to bolster their cases to win MVP, Rookie of the Year, and a variety of other awards now that the regular season has concluded.
While reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to win the league’s highest individual honor for a second time, the Rookie of the Year race has become one of the most-followed stories in sports.
Key Takeaways
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Gilgeous-Alexander is favored to win his second straight MVP after his team took the #1 seed in the West for the second consecutive season.
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Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year is the largest favorite in any market.
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NBA players are not eligible for regular-season awards if they didn’t meet the 65-minimum game requirement (barring extreme circumstances).
Gilgeous-Alexander won the MVP last year while averaging 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds for the 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder en route to a seven-game victory in the NBA Finals. He followed that up with 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on a remarkable 55.3% shooting as his team finished atop the Western Conference for the second year running.
The 27-year-old’s excellence has given him a 95% chance to win the NBA MVP, according to users at the top prediction app Kalshi.
Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) and Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) are both listed with 3% chances despite having remarkable seasons of their own.
While Wembanyama does not appear to be much of a threat to take Derrick Rose’s title as the youngest NBA MVP in history, he is a near shoo-in to win the Defensive Player of the Year. Kalshi lists him at 99% and everyone else at less than 1% to win the award.
The Rookie of the Year leaves the most intrigue for fans and voters. First-overall pick Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) sits at a 53% chance, and his former roommate at Duke, Kon Knueppel (Charlotte Hornets), is at 42%.
Flagg appeared to have lost his grip on the race when he was sidelined by an injury for nearly a month from early February into March. However, 51 and 45-point scoring nights at the start of April made him the favorite again. He finished the year averaging 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists.
Knueppel, the fourth pick in the draft, was the favorite as recently as April 5. He finished the season with the most made threes in the NBA and a stat line of 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. He also missed just one game and was a driving force in the revitalization of the Hornets franchise.
While no other player received more than 1% chance to win the award, Kalshi believes there is a 6% chance that the vote will end in a tie. That hasn’t happened since 1999-00 and only occurred three times in NBA history, and it would result in Flagg and Knueppel being declared co-winners.
More NBA awards battles
The NBA attempts to highlight players who showed the most growth during the season by offering them the Most Improved Player award. Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker soared in the market over the last month, moving from a 3% chance on March 14 to his current mark of 86%. Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren is second at 13%, and Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija is third at 2%.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Alexander-Walker’s cousin, is favored to win Clutch Player of the Year along with the MVP. He does not currently have an opponent with even a 1% chance.
The Spurs are shaping up to be the only team to have different players win individual regular-season awards, as Keldon Johnson is the frontrunner for the Sixth Man of the Year at Kalshi. Like Alexander-Walker, his 90% chance to claim the honor represents an enormous growth from the 15.4% chance he was given exactly one month ago. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Miami Heat) is his only real competition at 6%.
Boston Celtics boss Joe Mazzulla is making a late surge to win Coach of the Year, climbing from 24% just one week ago to his current mark of 77%. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons’ J.B. Bickerstaff is at 26% despite leading the market at 61% two days ago.
All-league team chances
The All-NBA and All-Defensive teams are difficult to parse since there is overlap between the possible teams, whereas individual awards only yield one winner and a field of losers.
At the time of writing, these are the players and probabilities for the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams:
All-NBA First Team
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 99%
All-NBA Second Team
All-NBA Third Team
All-Defensive First Team
All-Defensive Second Team
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Donovan Clingan/Evan Mobley – 20%
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