This past Saturday, UFC 323 went down in Las Vegas, with Petr Yan putting on one of the best performances of the year in his upset win over Merab Dvalishvili to reclaim the bantamweight title. Also, in the co-main event, Joshua Van became the new flyweight champion when Alexandre Pantoja suffered an injury just a few seconds into the bout. So let’s talk about all the fallout from UFC 323, plus a few more things.
It was Merab’s 4th five round title fight in 11 months, how much did that affect Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 (Merab turns 35 in January)?
Here’s the fun thing about fighting: we’ll never know. Could it have been the biggest difference? Totally possible! Could it not have mattered at all? Also totally possible! It’s all going to be speculation, just like it’s speculation about how much Yan’s injuries in the first fight made a difference.
But, since you’re asking me to speculate, I’ll say that it definitely wasn’t meaningless, but I’m skeptical about it being the determining factor in the bout, for a couple of reasons.
First, it’s not like Merab’s cardio or output was significantly worse. He landed 134 significant strikes and shot 29 takedowns in the fight, which is pretty comparable to all of his fights. And while the eye test suggests that Merab may not have been as in shape as he normally is, that’s not really a concrete data point, just a vibe.
Second, I think you can explain away a lot of the bad vibes for Merab in the fight by crediting Yan for an exceptional performance. Yan punished Merab to the body early and often, busted him up almost immediately, and generally made his life hell in ways that fighters have not done before. Yan kept pace with Merab the entire fight, never letting him take the initiative, and battered him all over, all while defending takedowns. Merab has the best cardio in MMA history, but even his cardio is going to look a little worse when he’s getting beaten up, and that’s what Yan did.
Lastly, Merab himself came out and said that he was trying to put on a more exciting fight, and while that claim is somewhat dubious (he still shot A LOT of takedowns), it does sort of argue against Merab being physically compromised.
All that being said, I do think that elite-level fighters should not compete four times in 12 months, because that’s an insane thing to do. The margins in MMA are already so small, and that level of output functionally guarantees a setback when you’re competing at the very top of the sport. Every MMA fight is a game of Russian Roulette, but that level of frequency is just like adding in more bullets. So, while I don’t think Merab’s insane schedule was determinative, I don’t think it helped.
How long will Yan’s title reign be in your opinion?
Not that long. That’s not a critique of Yan, just an honest assessment of where the division is.
Yan is awesome, and his performance on Saturday was transcendent. Given the stakes and the expectations, it’s one of the best performances I’ve ever seen. But Yan is about to be 33 and competing in one of the best divisions in the sport. That alone means his window is small, but his style is also concerning.
Yan is exceptionally well-rounded, which is a style that tends to age gracefully, but he’s also not a dynamic offensive force. That means Yan has to comprehensively win fights, time in and time out. And in modern MMA, against the best fighters in the world who all have bespoke game plans for you, that’s hard. It means Yan can’t ever just get caught, can’t take too long to get started, can’t have any mistakes, because if he gets behind, he’s probably staying there. That can be done, but it’s not easy. And already nearing the end of his athletic prime makes it all the more difficult.
Plus, hell, Merab might just beat him in the trilogy. If Merab really was compromised because of the schedule, maybe the third fight looks more like the first? I guess we’ll see.
Three part question for you Jed, as they all relate to Pantoja.
1: Assuming Pantoja is out for a while due to his injury/dislocation, do the UFC book Joshua Van VS Tatsuro Taira while he’s recovering?
2: Will Pantoja get a title shot upon his return, or is that going to be depending on how the landscape at flyweight will be like upon his return (new prospects could emerge, and new number one contenders could pop up)?
3: How confident are you in the possibility of Pantoja regaining the belt? He’s an old man in a division brimming with younger fighters, and at 35, his time at the top might be coming to an end soon.
1. It seems like the answer is yes. Dana White basically said as much at the post-fight presser, and it makes sense. I’m not a physician, but depending on the extent of the injury, Pantoja could be out for half a year or more. You’ve got a new, young champion and lots of contenders. Get fighting, and Pants can challenge when he’s back.
2. He’ll get a title shot. Aside from being the second-greatest flyweight of all time, he lost the title in a fluky way. Sure, Van may have gone on to beat the crap out of him, but we can all acknowledge that the way the fight ended was not ideal. Plus, Pants is well-liked. They’ll let him challenge when he’s ready.
3. Deeply unconfident. I thought Pantoja was going to beat Van on Saturday, but he’s near the end of his prime already, and now he’ll be at it and coming off a serious injury. That’s not a great combination. I hope I’m wrong, because you never want to see a champion have their title window ended by injury, but I think that’s the most likely scenario here. Alas.
Is there any chance in hell that the White House card has 8 or 9 title fights like Trump is stating?
In case you missed it, President Donald Trump said that the UFC White House card is going to have “eight or nine” championship fights. The short answer to this question is “No.” The longer answer is “No, no, no, no, no, please, no.”
In a very real sense, I think there’s no chance the UFC does this. Aside from completely butchering the rest of its yearly schedule, it’s a logistical nightmare. Planning for nine fights that could last anywhere from 30 minutes to 30 seconds is pretty difficult, and for no payoff. And if the worst happens, and they all end up going to decision and being boring, it’s a catastrophe.
I’ve maintained since jump street that the most sensible thing to do with the White House card is to treat it as the grand spectacle it is, and book grand and spectacular fights. UFC title fights are not that; they’re just title fights. The White House should be Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler, Jon Jones vs. Alex Pereira, and a bunch of other “legend” fights. So, I guess, if they do that and then give each fight its own, unique championship, then maybe. But I doubt it. Methinks the President Trump may not have been completely truthful here.
If the White House card is going to be as grandiose as it’s being made out to be, do you think a one time paywall will be added to it on Paramount like ESPN had for all the PPVs?
And since we’re talking about it, I figured I might as well answer this one, too.
I doubt the UFC will bring back pay-per-view for UFC White House. I know Dana White said they may bring it back for one-off things, and this feels like something of that ilk, but I mostly think he was covering his bases there for future options. The shift to Paramount+ has been highly publicized about the lack of PPVs associated, and if they then put the biggest event of the year behind an additional paywall, that runs the risk of off-putting the fan base. I already have friends telling me they’re going to watch more fights next year because they won’t have to buy PPVs, and so to almost immediately go back on that could sour a big chunk of the fan base, especially new fans.
Pick 3 past champions at their peak/on the night of their best performance to fight 3 current champions. Who are you picking and who wins?
Mine are:
Islam vs GSP (Penn 2 fight): my heart says GSP but I feel it’s close to a toss up and Islam may just be too skilled.
Yan vs TJ Dillashaw (either Barao fight): I think if TJ could avoid getting clipped he would take it, Yan is so good defensively when he’s on and this would be so sick.
Topuria vs Penn (Sanchez or Sherk fights): Topuria go bonk and prime BJ was a madman who literally couldn’t die. I feel like on paper Topuria should win given the natural evolution of the game but BJ was BJ for a reason.
Definitely going with Islam Makhachev vs. Georges St-Pierre because that would be some of the best fighting of all-time. Originally, when I thought about this, I favored GSP because of the jab, but the more I think about it, the more I think Islam’s game would give Georges huge problems. Also, if I could’ve picked Islam vs. Khabib, I’d have done that. God, that would be good.
Pantoja vs. Demetrious Johnson. I know Pants isn’t the champion, but I’m doing it anyway because a fluke arm injury doesn’t change who he is in my heart. That’s No. 1 vs. No. 2 all-time in the weight class. Elite stuff.
And hot take, but Alex Pereira vs. Jon Jones. Part of me believes Jon rolls right through ‘Poatan,’ but part of me also recognizes that Jones, despite having a great chin, did not ever want to get hit. He fought so cautiously against guys like Thiago freaking’ Santos, that Pereira might really freak him out. Plus, the leg kicks onto Jones’ spindly calves make it interesting.
Also, prime TJ probably whoops Petr, but everyone hates TJ, so whatever. But TJ is the “best” bantamweight I’ve ever seen. And as much as I love Penn, he doesn’t fare well against Topuria. His jab and chin can make him game, but Topuria throws in combination and just kinda lumps him for 25 minutes. I would guess.
Thanks for reading, and thank you to everyone who sent in questions. Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send them to me. Every Sunday (sometimes I forget and it happens on Monday), I’ll put out a call for questions on The Feed. Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane; just drop your questions there, and I’ll answer the best ones. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.
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