Nasukawa has eight professional boxing fights. He is popular in Japan and built his reputation in kickboxing, but he has not defeated a credible world-level opponent in a boxing ring. His lone step up ended in a clear decision loss to Takuma Inoue, who controlled the distance and dictated the pace without needing to take risks. Takuma is a solid titlist. He is not Naoya Inoue, and that distinction matters when projecting how quickly Tenshin can close this gap.
Estrada turned professional in 2008. He has fought Roman Gonzalez three times in championship bouts and went on the road to defeat Brian Viloria for unified flyweight titles. He held the lineal championship at 115 for years and competed at an elite pace against the best of his era.
Estrada’s knockout loss to Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez showed physical decline, and some observers believed he received the benefit of the doubt in close decisions against Gonzalez and Argi Cortes before that. Even so, seventeen years at the world level leave habits that younger fighters do not possess.
Age has slowed Estrada. The snap is reduced. The instincts remain. He knows how to bank rounds when exchanges stall. He works the body without forcing exchanges and stays patient when opponents rush. Inside, he ties up, turns his shoulders, and makes fighters reset before they can build combinations.
Nasukawa’s advantages are youth, likely natural size at bantamweight, and fighting at home before a supportive crowd. Those are real edges. They do not replace seasoning. Eight professional fights do not equal three battles with Roman Gonzalez and more than a decade in championship rounds.
Sanctioning this bout as an eliminator implies competitive balance that the careers do not support. If Estrada performs at a functional level, he should be favored. If he cannot handle a former kickboxer still constructing a boxing foundation, then his decline has accelerated beyond what most expect.
Experience still decides fights. In this matchup, experience belongs entirely to Juan Francisco Estrada.
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