By Brad Marchetti: The Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua betting odds have been out for two weeks, and the sharps have hammered Paul enough to push the line from Joshua -2000 down into the -1000 to -950 range.
The 36-year-old Joshua, 28-4 with 25 KOs, will have been inactive for 14 months when he steps into the ring with Paul. He is coming off a fight in which he was thrashed from pillar to post by Daniel Dubois despite entering as a -550 boxing betting favorite.
Paul, 12-1 with 7 KOs, was dominant in his most recent outing, scoring a one-sided decision over a shopworn former WBC middleweight champion, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., as a -700 favorite. With a tidal wave of betting action flooding in on Paul, it raises an interesting question. Is everyone wrong in assuming Jake Paul is merely a club fighter draped in fame and fortune?
Before I make my official pick and wagering advice, I have one question for all the fanatics, media members, promoters, and general playa-haters. Why does it seem that most people dislike Jake Paul? Last I checked, the guy was never in the news for any scandal, arrest, or general bad behavior. Paul cuts checks to his female fighters that have more zeros than ever as a true ambassador for women’s boxing.
Paul could go down as the most self-promoted athlete of all time, toppling Muhammad Ali, which would inspire ambitious entrepreneurs everywhere. The kicker for me is that he has his own bookmaking service with Betr Picks. By all accounts, he seems like a cool dude with a sense of humor, a tireless work ethic, and brass balls. Hell, I wanna have a beer with a G like that.
Yet at one point or another, almost every promoter has taken shots at him. Here is a list of promoters who have called Paul a pretender rather than a contender: Eddie Hearn, Dana White, Bob Arum, Turki Alalshikh, and Lou DiBella. All I can say is beware of a big-hitting heavyweight who wants his respect. When a prizefighter feels he has been disrespected in a game that commands respect, he is most dangerous.
In 1962, Benny “Kid” Paret launched homophobic slurs at Emile Griffith before their middleweight title fight, and Griffith put him in a coffin. Paul has been disrespected in every way possible and wants to prove that he is the genuine article. Can he do it? As a former boxing oddsmaker, I break down what many view as a David vs. Goliath matchup to uncover the true Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Betting Odds.
Strength
Joshua is contracted to come in at a maximum of 245 pounds. This appears to be a shrewd move on Paul’s part. It can be argued that the 245-pound and above version of Joshua is better than the leaner 235 to 240 version. Mass plus force plus acceleration equals punching power, and Joshua relies heavily on being a puncher. Paul looked formidable at 227 pounds when he fought Mike Tyson in his debut at heavyweight, but could come in a few pounds lighter to maximize his speed advantage around 220 pounds.
Height and Use of Reach
Joshua is rangy at 6’6″ with long arms, but he has never been known as a dominant outside fighter. Despite being a shorter heavyweight at 6’1″, Paul fights longer than his height suggests because he uses a less squared stance than Joshua. Despite Paul maximizing his shorter reach, this is Joshua’s biggest advantage aside from experience.
Right-Hand Power
Jake Paul’s right hand is one of the better weapons in boxing, and he knows how to throw it straight or as a hook with real authority. In recent bouts, a punishing right hand aimed toward the hip and rib cage area has also become a reliable tool.
Paul’s uppercut is a work in progress, but it lands with force. Joshua’s clubbing right cross and uppercut have made him a wealthy man, but he is not an all-time great puncher like George Foreman, Earnie Shavers, or Mike Tyson. Joshua also tends to push his shots under pressure with stiff-arm punches. Punch for punch, Joshua’s uppercut gives him a modest edge.
Left-Hand Power
Neither fighter is going into the book of all-time great left hookers, but Paul’s long whipping hook is almost on par with Joshua’s more fundamental hook. Paul’s jab has more snap, while Joshua’s jab is heavier. The left uppercut is not a major weapon for either.
Handspeed
This is one area that even sharp boxing minds overlook. AJ is not a speed fighter, and Paul has quick hands for a heavyweight. Add in 28-year-old reflexes versus 36-year-old reflexes, and Paul has the advantage.
Accuracy
Joshua has plenty of knockouts, evidence he can hit the target, but his lack of a consistent jab and tendency to lose his temper hurt him. Paul will improve with more experience, but his one-punch knockouts show that he knows how to set traps and land clean.
Stamina
Neither fighter is winning a marathon. Joshua has slightly better stamina because of his experience. With this being an eight-round fight, Paul set the distance almost perfectly because he tends to fade around the eighth. His stamina will improve, but it is a question mark.
Defense
Under trainer Ben Davison, Joshua has fought with his hands low and his chin high, which has created defensive vulnerabilities. He is still not an easy target because of his height and punching power, but defense is not his strength. Paul’s defense is still developing, but he has fast feet and uses his broad shoulders well to deflect punches. Paul also spars more often than Joshua, which helps sharpen defensive timing.
Chin
I have always believed Joshua was china-chinned, similar to the former UK champion Frank Bruno. Joshua has the heart and strength to get up, but anything with modest power tends to wobble him. Paul’s chin will face its toughest test, but the bull-necked Ohio fighter has never been dropped or badly hurt in a professional bout.
Agility
Paul has quick feet and uses them well when he boxes behind the jab, although he sometimes overcommits and becomes off-balance. Joshua has never been known for quick footwork and does not possess much rhythm.
Jab
Joshua will never resemble Larry Holmes with the jab, despite possessing a 747 wingspan. Aj’s jab has improved as he has evolved into an outside jabber but is not a dominant weapon. Paul’s up jab shot from the hip makes it tricky for tall fighters like Joshua to locate and it could find the target often to the torso. Joshua’s reach gives him the advantage, but Paul’s jab may help him control the fight.
Intelligence
Paul is far less experienced than Joshua, but he is awkward, tricky, and a clever counterpuncher. “El Gallo” brought in Andy Ruiz, the man who beat Joshua, to help design a game plan similar to Ruiz’s. Antony has the gold medal pedigree and world title experience, but he does not make great adjustments in the ring.
Final Tally
Anthony Joshua vs. Jake Paul Predictions and Best Bets
Every battle is won or lost before it is ever fought. -Sun Tzu
Based on my tally, Joshua is the rightful favorite, but his odds are bloated. because the public perception of Joshua is inflated, and Paul’s skills are undervalued. Based on the numbers, I would peg Joshua as a 3/1 favorite.
For this fight, Paul brought in three top 20 contenders to spar with. Jared Anderson at 6 foot 4 and 255 pounds, 18-1 with 15 knockouts. Frank Sanchez at 6 foot 4 and 238 pounds, 25-1 with 18 knockouts. Lawrence Okolie at 6 foot 5 and 260 pounds, 22-1 with 16 knockouts. You would be hard-pressed to find a better trio to prepare for battle with the hulking Joshua.
Statistically, Anthony Joshua has been one of the biggest money burners in heavyweight betting history. AJ lost as a 25/1 favorite vs. Andy Ruiz, as a 4/1 favorite against Oleksandr Usyk, and most recently as an 11/2 favorite against Daniel Dubois. It’s not the big fellas’ fault that he never lived up to his gold medal expectations set as the successor to Lennox Lewis.
The United Kingdom often hypes its champions into demigods. Truth be told, Joshua is lucky to have gotten as far as he has, having been given advantages that resemble the treatment of mob-protected fighters from the 1950s. To preserve Matchroom Boxing’s cash register, Joshua has had the benefit of biased referees and favorable judges in most of his bouts. With Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions co-hosting the event, Jake may be able to level the playing field.
Boxing rewards fighters who are active and hungry. Joshua has been inactive for 454 days, and his desire to compete at the highest level is worth questioning. It can be argued that AJ peaked when he knocked out Wladimir Klitschko in 2017. Since then, he has gone through a laundry list of trainers in search of a ring identity he has never truly found. He started as a seek-and-destroy killer who walked opponents down. Since the Ruiz knockout in 2019, Joshua became cautious and reactive, mostly boxing off the back foot insecurely. Something left Joshua the night Andy Ruiz toppled him.
Bringing in Ruiz was a brilliant move by “The Problem Child”. Jake has fast hands and quick counterpunching instincts similar to Andy’s that could give Joshua fits. Styles make fights. Many pundits are pointing to Joshua’s destruction of Francis Ngannou as empirical evidence of what he can do against an inexperienced foe, but Ngannou fights in a completely different style. The current version of the Matchroom machine fights with his chin up and his left hand low, which is a perfect ally for Paul’s Sunday right hand. Paul’s athleticism and foot speed will also make it difficult for the set puncher Joshua to hit a moving target.
Expect Paul to move constantly and use explosive bursts that prevent Joshua from finding a rhythm. While many expect a knockout, I believe Paul will stick, move, and clinch his way to a razor-close decision over the short track. Jake’s flicking jab off the hip in a Paulie Malignaggi-esque way will help him dictate the pace. AJ will try to transform into the hungry power-hitter that applied smart pressure in his prime, but once he feels the YouTuber’s heavy hands, he will be unable to block out the shadows in his mind from the Dubois knockout.
If the fight goes to the scorecards and Joshua fails to knock Paul out, many will claim the fix is in. Jake will pocket his cool $92-million laugh and douse W body spray in the eyes of his detractors who called him a fraud. Even if the masses refuse to give Paul proper credit after beating Joshua, one thing is certain. The world will be watching whoever the MVP of boxing will fight next.
Joshua vs. Paul Best Bets
Paul +550 moneyline (3 units)
Draw +1800 (1 unit)
Last Updated on 12/09/2025
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