LeBron James said, “We’ve gotten past the marathon and the sprint is about to start.”
We’re not sprinting yet. To keep with LeBron’s marathon analogy, there’s about 8.5 miles left in the race of the NBA season — still a ways to go, right about when people start running into the wall, but the end (and that sprint) is in sight.
What are the five biggest things to watch, the five biggest story lines as we get ready for that sprint to the end of the season? Let’s break it down.
Tanking
When Adam Silver was first asked about tanking during his All-Star Saturday press conference, he proceeded to give a four-and-a-half-minute, circular, almost rambling statement that boiled down to this: He doesn’t think it is what fans want, he understands why the analytics tell teams to tank (and some fans root for their team to lose, “the worst place to be, for example, is to be a middle-of-the-road team”), and that the league is looking at things it can do to limit tanking in the future.
Then Silver got to the real issue: This year is a perfect storm that makes things worse. This year’s draft is considered particularly deep, with at least three potential franchise cornerstone players at the top (and potential All-Stars through the top eight or nine), and the next couple of drafts are seen as down years. Teams are focused on tanking this season because the rewards are higher.
The reality is that there is only so much the league can do — in basketball, landing one elite player changes a franchise. Despite what seemingly every other Reddit NBA post says, there are no easy answers here, every “solution” creates a different problem. It comes down to this: Landing Cooper Flagg or Cade Cunningham or Anthony Edwards or Victor Wembanyama can turn a franchise around, so it is worth the risk (and some fines) to improve draft positioning.
Just ask Mark Cuban.
Nine teams are more focused on maximizing their draft odds and landing one of those top players than winning games the rest of this season (Milwaukee would have made 10, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming back and looking to win games). That’s 30% of the league. To be clear, the players on the court will play hard and try to win, this is a front office call. Meaning the higher-level players who can help those teams win games will see limited court time. If any.
It’s going to lead to some ugly games the rest of the season, either blowouts when a team that cares faces these squads, or fans will be paying NBA prices to witness essentially a G League game when these tanking teams meet. It’s only going to get worse in the coming weeks.
Silver will fine more teams, the league will institute some new rules in the offseason, but it will ultimately change little. As Silver said, the “incentives are misaligned” because getting one elite player changes everything, and the risk is worth it.
James Harden in Cleveland
Cleveland got better at the trade deadline, bringing in James Harden. The question is how much better?
How about No. 2 seed in the East better? Maybe NBA Finals better.
Cleveland sits as the No. 4 seed in the East, just 1.5 games back of No. 2 Boston, and the Cavaliers have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule in the league (and noticeably easier than any team above them), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Yahoo Sports’ Tom Haberstroh did the math and said that 13 of the Cavaliers remaining 28 games are against tanking teams (only the Warriors and Magic have more).
Harden brings a lot of positives to Cleveland. He is a pick-and-roll master, and that has helped Jarrett Allen — a proven pick-and-roll big — thrive since the trade. Plus, late in games, it has opened up opportunities for Donovan Mitchell. Rather than Mitchell having to create against a set defense, Harden can initiate the offense, get the defense in rotation, then swing it to Mitchell to finish the play (not unlike what Darius Garland could do when healthy last season for Cleveland). Plus — and this is an odd thing to say — Harden could be better for the Cavaliers’ defense. Opponents targeted the 6’1″ Garland, forcing switches into mismatches; Harden is no elite defender, but he’s 6’5″, has great hands, and is stout and can’t be backed down easily.
Will Harden on the Cavaliers work in the playoffs, especially the second round and beyond? That’s the big question. Considering his track record of duds, not to mention Cleveland’s history, there’s still a lot to prove. That said, Harden running a lot of pick-and-roll against the Knicks defense seems like bad news for New York. One team the Cavs may not match up well against is in Boston, which brings us to…
Jayson Tatum’s return
Is Boston the best team in the East?
The Celtics already sit as the No. 2 seed in the conference, with a top-10 offense and defense, and now it looks like their best player — Jayson Tatum — will return before the playoffs.
Tatum’s return from a torn Achilles suffered last playoffs is not set in stone, but Boston is acting as if they expect his return — it is not trading away the wing scoring of Anfernee Simons to add big man Nikola Vucevic if they don’t expect Tatum on the wing for a playoff run.
There are questions in Boston. Can Tatum slot into the role Jaylen Brown played for this team? These Celtics don’t need vintage, MVP-ballot Tatum because they have MVP-ballot play from Brown this season, plus Derrick White has stepped up. What Boston needs is Tatum to be the No. 2 option and threat that keeps the defense honest and opens up driving and passing lanes. Just 85% of Tatum is a huge help for this team.
Still, in an open Eastern Conference, this Celtics team with Tatum (and now Vucevic) may be the best of the group.
Denver’s health
One thing that has come out of the first 55 games of the season: Oklahoma City is not inevitable. They are the best team in the NBA, especially when healthy, but they are not unbeatable.
Denver is the team best positioned to knock OKC off… if healthy.
The Nuggets have the size, the scoring, the defense to challenge the Thunder — it was a seven-game series a year ago against OKC, and the Nuggets didn’t have Johnson or this Peyton Watson, but they were playing Russell Westbrook in all seven games.
This year’s Denver is improved and a legit title contender, but has been hit hard by injuries: Nikola Jokic has missed 14 games, Cameron Johnson 24, Aaron Gordon 32 (and counting, he remains out with a hamstring issue), and Christian Braun 36. The Denver core of Jokic/Murray/Gordon have played just 229 minutes together all season (with a +23.5 net rating in those minutes). The ideal starting five — Murray, Braun, Johnson, Gordon, Jokic — have played in 10 games together.
Through all that, the Nuggets are still the No. 3 seed in the West and have the best offense in the league. Get healthy, get their defense playing better, and this team is a legit title threat. It’s just a question of getting right before the postseason.
Are we sleeping on the Pistons?
Already in this list, we have said to keep an eye on how much better James Harden makes the Cleveland Cavaliers, or how, with Jayson Tatum back in the fold, the Boston Celtics could be the best team in the East.
What about the team that is on top of the East in the standings, the Detroit Pistons? Are we sleeping on them?
Detroit has the elite star in Cade Cunningham, the team has an identity, and it meets the classic definition of a contender with a top-10 offense and defense in the league (and it is second in the league in net rating).
Yet ask around at the All-Star break, and it’s almost likely the Pistons are in the second tier. The concerns are on the offensive end: This is a team that scores a lot of points in the paint (56.8 per game), and they are third in the league in offense started in transition (17.3% of their possessions), but those points are harder to come by in the playoffs as the games slow down. Teams will pack the paint against Detroit and dare it to shoot over the top — Detroit takes the third-lowest percentage of shots from 3 in the league, and it is in the bottom 10 in the league in shooting percentage from deep (34.9%). The Pistons could simply lose the math game some nights in the playoffs.
Also, when teams load up on Cade Cunningham in the playoffs, who is the secondary shot creator?
Still, Detroit has an elite defense and a clear identity. This is a very good team, and in this Eastern Conference, count them out at your own risk.
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