This men’s college basketball season has been a dream for some, and a nightmare for others.
It’s hard to believe, but the 2025-26 regular season is more than halfway done, meaning the race is really heating up to secure a spot in the Big Dance that will begin in two months. It’s not a shock to see the usual suspects like Arizona, Duke, Connecticut and Michigan at the top of the sport.
However, there are some that have surprises — good and bad — that not many saw coming. In the preseason, some teams figured to be fighting for a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but have become bonafide contenders that realistically can make a run. On the other side, squads that had reasonable expectations have fallen flat, and are in jeopardy of missing out on March Madness.
Bracketology: : Race for No. 1 seed leads March Madness projection
Let’s examine the biggest surprises and disappointments of the season so far, using the preseason and most recent USA TODAY Sports Bracketology.
NCAA basketball surprises
Nebraska
Arguably the story of the season, it’s been a dream ride for the Cornhuskers. They are 18-0, the best start in program history, with impressive wins against Michigan State and Illinois to fuel a 5-0 Quad 1 record and No. 6 NET ranking.
Nebraska wasn’t considered an NCAA tournament team before the season began, but are in position to be a top-four seed come March. That would position them well to get its first NCAA tournament win, the only Power conference team yet to achieve the feat.
Vanderbilt
Predicted to finish 11th in the SEC preseason poll, the Commodores have thrust themselves into the top of the league, far from the bubble spot they started the season in. Vanderbilt started the campaign 16-0, matching its best start ever.
It has lost two straight games, but that shouldn’t spoil what has been a remarkable second season for Mark Byington. Not only is Vanderbilt (16-2, 3-2) poised to get back-to-back tournament appearances for the first time since 2016-17, but could get its best seed ever (No. 3 in 1993).
Virginia
The ACC is vastly better this season, and helping that cause is Virginia. The Cavaliers are road warriors, with all their Quad 1 games so far away from home. It’s impressive since they are 4-1 in the category, including major wins at Texas, Louisville and SMU to boost their top 15 NET ranking.
Ryan Odom has brought some swagger back to Charlottesville in his first season with the Cavaliers, something it’s been lacking for several years. Virginia (16-2, 5-1) is on the path to getting back to March after missing it in 2025 for the second time in four seasons.
Clemson
Another ACC team, Brad Brownell has become an under-the-radar coach who is consistently putting together solid teams at Clemson. After starting the season 7-3, the Tigers have won nine straight, including wins against SMU and Miami to propel its perfect start (6-0) in conference play.
The Tigers (16-3) didn’t start the season in tournament conversation, but are capable of capturing its first ACC crown since 1990. Another March Madness bid would be three-straight, something Clemson hasn’t done since 2008-11.
Villanova
After Villanova struggled to find momentum under previous coach Kevin Neputne, Kevin Willard is bringing back optimism not seen since Jay Wright had the Wildcats as a national power. Villanova did have some tough results against BYU and Michigan, but have handled business everywhere else. Like Clemson, the Wildcats are good on the road.
The Big East feels open after Connecticut, and Villanova (14-4, 5-2) has the inside track to be in the top four of the league. After so many seasons being on the bubble and missing out on Selection Sunday, it feels more certain Villanova will hear its name called for the first time since 2022.
Saint Louis
Not many realize it, but the Atlantic 10 has a great team in Saint Louis. The Billikins are 17-1, the only blemish a one-point loss to Stanford. They have handled nearly every opponent they’ve faced, and made the most of the few opportunities so far with a 2-0 Quad 1 record.
It’s always tough for teams outside the Power conferences to get at-large spots, yet Saint Louis is building a case to be in regardless of what happens. The No. 22 NET ranking is extremely impressive, and could be why the A-10 could get multiple teams in depending on how things shake out.
Miami (Ohio)
The quiet undefeated team in the country, the RedHawks are off to their best start ever at 19-0. While Miami hasn’t played any Quad 1 games and is just 3-0 in Quad 2 games, it’s worth noting a team reaching the middle of January without a blemish.
Even though the RedHawks likely need the MAC title to get in, they are making quite the case to be in regardless. At this rate, Miami could be a single-digit seed.
NCAA basketball disappointments
UCLA
The arrival of transfer Donovan Dent figured to make the Bruins a contender in the Big Ten, but it hasn’t paid off and it’s been a mediocre campaign for UCLA. At 12-6, it doesn’t own any marquee victories and has put up some head-scratching performances in big games, owning a 1-5 record in Quad 1 games.
UCLA opened the season in the conversation for a top-four seed, but instead will be fighting for its tournament life the rest of the way. It makes sense to leave it out of the field now, and the Bruins need a complete turnaround to get out of the bubble.
Kentucky
Mark Pope’s second season at his alma mater has been a rocky one, with inconsistently plaguing the season. Kentucky started the season with a rough 5-4 mark that really soured Big Blue Nation, but it has somewhat righted the ship with a 7-2 record since. Still, the Wildcats are 3-5 in Quad 1 games.
Not all hope is lost, but Kentucky (12-6, 3-2) has to find a rhythm to avoid tumbling down toward a potential double-digit seed, something that has happened only once, in 2008.
St. John’s
There was hope Rick Pitino would be able to replicate last season’s magical run, but some early season duds have ruined the vibes in Queens. The Red Storm (13-5, 6-1) set themselves up with a challenging nonconference schedule and couldn’t capitalize with a 7-4 start. There aren’t notable wins, and the Quad 3 loss to Providence doesn’t help.
The Big East isn’t daunting so there isn’t a real concern for St. John’s tournament stake, but not having a quality resume means there isn’t much wiggle room to move its way up the seed line.
Oregon
The Ducks brought talent back for another promising season, only for it to turn into a disaster. After starting 4-0, Oregon is 4-10, losing badly to high quality teams and falling to teams it was expected to beat. As a result, Oregon is 0-9 in Quad 1 and 2 games, and it doesn’t get much better after it with a 3-1 Quad 3 mark.
It’s one of the biggest disappointments, with Oregon starting the season as a No. 6 seed and now completely out of the tournament conversation. It will take a miracle for the Ducks to get back in. Jackson Shelstad’s season-ending injury won’t help.
Creighton
Despite losing key veterans, there was a sense Creighton could still be a contender. Instead it’s shown the Bluejays have plenty of work to do. It was a rough 5-5 start with plenty of blowout losses and it hasn’t really improved since; it’s standing at 11-8 with a tough 1-6 Quad 1 record and No. 55 NET ranking.
Like St. John’s, Creighton is still in the top half of the Big East but a loss to Providence showed how vulnerable it is. It will have to go on a solid winning streak or two to stay away from the bubble.
Missouri
An 8-0 start gave optimism for Missouri, but that quick beginning has been forgotten by going 5-5 since. The opponents got tougher and it hurt the Tigers, with a 2-4 record against Quad 1 opponents, including tough losses to Notre Dame and LSU. The NET rankings of 68 is dangerously low for an at-large candidate.
Missouri hasn’t given a solid case to be a tournament-worthy team, and it needs to stockpile wins so it can jump up the NET. Dennis Gates is in danger of missing the tournament again.
Marquette
Perhaps there is no team in a worse position than Marquette. There was a chance the newcomers could keep the Golden Eagles afloat, but the season appears to be washed. They have lost nine of their past 10 and at 6-13 with an 0-11 Quad 1 and 2 record, there’s a near-zero chance it gets in the field.
By the end of it, Shaka Smart may be on the hot seat, as this is set to be the first time he misses the tournament at Marquette.
Memphis
Penny Hardaway’s best season is on track to be followed up with one of his toughest, with the exodus of talent that left Memphis very evident. It started 4-7, with nearly every loss to tournament-caliber teams. The Tigers are 1-7 against Quad 1 and 2 teams, and the No. 108 NET ranking is a bad mark.
Memphis has started its American Conference play off well but that won’t get in the good graces of the selection committee, with not many quality opportunities left. It’ll be the automatic bid or bust for the Tigers.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA basketball biggest surprises, disappointments so far this season
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