“I like Mbilli in the fight,” said Arum.

The comments are not neutral. Arum co-promotes Mbilli, 29-0-1 (24 KOs), who will be making the first defense of his WBC title against Canelo. Still, Arum’s remarks reflect the growing argument that Canelo ( 63-3-2, 39 KOs), is no longer the same fighter after years of hard fights and declining output.

Canelo has not fought since losing his undisputed super middleweight championship to Terence Crawford last September. That fight was heavily marketed, backed by huge money, and sold as a major event, but it did not produce the kind of action many fans expected. Canelo threw mostly one punch at a time and faded after the midway point, while Crawford boxed conservatively, using movement, jabs, clinches, and short combinations to bank rounds.

The fight many fans had wanted for years was Canelo against David Benavidez, not Crawford moving up two divisions. Instead, Turki Alalshikh helped make Crawford-Canelo happen, and the event was pushed as a massive boxing spectacle. The result was commercially significant but forgettable in the ring.

Mbilli now gets the chance to do what Crawford did and push Canelo further toward retirement. The unbeaten champion fought to a hard split draw with Lester Martinez on the same card as Crawford-Canelo, in a bout that brought more sustained action than the main event despite its rough stretches.

Oddsmakers still have Canelo as the favorite, but Arum is betting on his fighter and on the idea that Canelo’s best days are gone. If Mbilli beats him in October, Arum’s golf-course line will sound less like promotional trash talk and more like a warning that came early.

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