I cannot emphasize enough the degree to which I think lineup construction is overrated in the discourse relative to the difference it makes in practice. I almost don’t even want to post this. But even with that caveat, lineup construction doesn’t not matter, and I think we saw a mistake last night. So thanks to a conversation between users GrasshoppingonNails, AJPDX, GrassRockFish, and rumdoodle in this morning’s Moose Tracks, I’m posting this despite my hesitance.
As noted on the broadcast, Rob Refsnyder has the third-highest OBP against LHP since 2023, behind only Vladito and Aaron Judge. So I totally get why the Mariners would want to have him in the leadoff spot to get on base ahead of the team’s big bats. And that’s what the Mariners did:
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Julio Rodríguez – R (CF)
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Randy Arozarena – R (LF)
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Brendan Donovan – L (3B)
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Víctor Robles – R (RF)
This makes a certain amount of sense. With Refsnyder at leadoff, you’re maximizing the odds that he gets three turns against a lefty, which is great. The problem is that the lineup is a circle. Having settled on a DH platoon of Refsnyder and Dominic Canzone, we know the Mariners are (correctly) anticipating pinch-hitting the lefty-swinging Canzone for Refsnyder once a reliever comes in. But once they do that, they’ve set up a Young-Canzone back-to-back of lefties for the next time through. That’s perfectly suited for a team’s left-handed reliever. Then you’re either getting Canzone versus a lefty or else using Mitch Garver or (gulp) Ryan Bliss as yet another pinch hitter. None of those situations are ideal relative to Canzone versus a righty or Refsnyder versus a lefty.
That situation is exactly what arose last night, as Ryan Bliss pinch-hit against Erik Sabrowski and then had to face Cade Smith with the game on the line in the ninth. You don’t have to be as down on Bliss as I am to guess how that went.
My proposed solution is pretty simple. Against LHP, make the 1-2-3 Julio-Refsnyder-Cal. That way, once Canzone is in, there’s no lefty pocket. If an opponent wants to bring in a left-handed reliever to face Young and Canzone or force a substitution, they have to make the sacrifice of letting Julio face a lefty. Maybe they’ll still do it, but at least they have to make a tradeoff. Historically, Julio doesn’t perform that much better against southpaws than northpaws, but he’s also almost never faced lefty relievers with big platoon splits. This construction would either give him that opportunity or else keep a righty in against at least one of Young or Canzone.
To be sure, this gets more complicated once J.P. Crawford returns. I’m expecting that lineup to look much the same but with a bottom four of Donovan, J.P., Robles, and Young in some order. Because Víctor Robles is platooning with Luke Raley, you end up with a similar situation of a lefty pocket. But because it’s at the bottom of the order, that pocket is much less likely to come to the plate twice after the starter comes out than the top of the order is. So once Robles is out and Raley is in, it’s less likely that pocket will come up again and be exploitable with a left-handed reliever.
And in any event, having those four at the bottom of the order is happening regardless of how the top three are set up. If anything, it’s yet another reason to move Refsnyder from leadoff to second. That helps split up the two platoon spots as far apart as possible.
Of course, baseball isn’t just names on a page. These are human beings we’re talking about, and there may be something the team sees in giving Julio and Cal the same lineup spots every day, no matter who they’re facing. Baseball players are famously creatures of habit, and those are the two most important bats. In particular, Julio didn’t love hitting in the leadoff spot since it guarantees he’ll have to lead off an inning at least once, and he doesn’t like having to get into focus so quickly after the long jog back from centerfield. If this is what’s motivating the team, then don’t let my machinations get in the way. But if not, I recommend shuffling the top three against southpaws.
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