The winner of Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy fights for the featherweight title next.
The winner of Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy fights for the featherweight title next.
The winner of Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy fights for the featherweight title next.
You know, I feel like if I write that enough times in as plain language as possible, it will be true. Because it should be. And yet, it might not be?
Evloev and Murphy—No. 2 and No. 6 respectively at 145 pounds in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings—are both undefeated and either would be a fresh challenge for Alexander Volkanovski, who needs new blood after wrapping up a two-fight series with Diego Lopes that not a single soul (except for Lopes himself) asked for. It should already have been Murphy after he knocked out Bellator golden boy Aaron Pico, or Evloev were it not for the Russian struggling to stay active.
Instead, one of these potential champions is about to be bumped back in the contender line, while the other should presumably start preparing for Volkanovski, assuming a wild card like Jean Silva doesn’t crash the party. Surely, one more statement performance from either Evloev or Murphy has to be enough for a title shot. It has to be.
Once more, with feeling: The winner of Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy fights for the featherweight title next.
When: Saturday, March 21. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 1 p.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 4 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.
Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy
I’d feel a lot better about picking Lerone Murphy if I believed in his takedown defense.
Too often, the English standout seems content to be taken down, trusting his grappling defense and athleticism to get him out of trouble. You can’t dispute the results as he’s yet to lose in the UFC, but he’s also yet to face an opponent like Movsar Evloev.
Taking guys down and making their lives miserable, that’s what Evloev does best. He’s a skilled striker as well, so there will be some excellent exchanges on the feet, but it’s Evloev’s wrestling that will make the difference over the course of a five-round fight. Even if Murphy avoids taking too much damage on the ground or in the clinch, he’ll be playing defense a lot much to the frustration of the home crowd.
Can Murphy do enough of his own damage to mitigate the stalemate stretches? Of course he can, so if Evloev isn’t mindful about mixing in significant strikes while working to drag Murphy to the mat, he could easily see a round or two slip away. Evloev has the advantage, but this will be far from an easy win.
Evloev wins on points in a tense contest to cement himself as—yes, I’m saying it again—the one to dethrone Alexander Volkanovski.
Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell
It’s not a genuine co-main event, but this should still be a fun penultimate bout. Luke Riley, 12-0, is being showcased, and he’s being set up for success against Michael Aswell, an all-action featherweight.
Aswell’s goal is to stay in Riley’s face and make him as uncomfortable as possible, daring him to engage in a brawl. The patient Riley is built for matchups like this as he’ll bide his time before letting his hands go when Aswell steps into range. Riley has crisp boxing, which he’ll need to use to keep Aswell guessing. Aswell is tough to put away, but I think Riley has the precision to accumulate enough damage and become the first fighter to finish the hardy Houstonian.
Riley by second-round knockout.
Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson
I’ll admit, this is a curious matchup, but not necessarily a bad one. If Sam Patterson is a welterweight the UFC is investing in, then it makes sense that they use Michael Page to build him up. Except for that whole “Page is really difficult to fight against and makes people look bad” thing.
Best case scenario for the UFC: Patterson takes less time to adjust to Page’s tricky style due to their having trained together in the past, he’s able to effectively close the distance, and he adds Page to his impressive streak of finishes, which currently stands at four. With respect to Patterson, though, Page is a significant step up from the likes of Trey Waters and Danny Barlow.
Catching Page with anything clean is an exercise in futility for many fighters. He has one of the most distinct striking stances in MMA and just when you think you see an opening to attack, he’s clipping you with a counter or simply dodging out of range and stinging you from distance. An annoying fellow to fight, I imagine.
The jump in competition for Patterson can’t be overlooked and one can assume Page also learned a lot from their sparring rounds. A dull pick, but Page by decision.
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane
Austen Lane, congrats on making the cut down to 205 pounds. That can’t have been easy. Now, your reward is getting pummeled by Iwo Baraniewski.
That’s been Lane’s lot in life since… well, since he decided to start competing in MMA. An athletic dude with just enough offense to be a threat, nobody taught Lane how to properly protect himself and the result has been him playing the nail far more than the hammer. Maybe I’m wrong and this move to light heavyweight finally unlocks his potential. I doubt it, though.
Baraniewski goes in there to finish and he’s yet to hear the Round 2 bell. Though Lane has shown some resilience in the past, I don’t expect him to take a cautious approach to his light heavyweight debut. He’ll do what he gets paid to do, rush in and create some chaos before being left flat on the canvas by Baraniewski.
Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
After being thoroughly handled by Anthony Hernandez, this feels like a do-or-die situation for Roman Dolidze. Not to say his UFC career is a wrap with a loss Saturday, but this pairing with Christian Leroy Duncan suggests the matchmakers are already placing him in the stepping stone tier. Tough place to be.
Duncan is on a hot streak, showing much of the promise he flashed during his Cage Warriors run. He’s a big middleweight with plenty of speed, and the assumption here is his athleticism will prevent Dolidze from wrestling him into oblivion. But Duncan’s takedown defense is just above average, so sticking with grappling is a smart game plan for Dolidze if he wants to get back on track. Because when Dolidze manages to take his man down, he can be deadly on the ground.
I can’t shake the thought that Dolidze is closer to retirement than he is to gatekeeper status, so for that reason I’m chickening out of predicting an upset here. Duncan uses his quickness, agility, and superior striking to win a competitive decision.
Danny Silva vs. Kurtis Campbell
Kurtis Campbell is going to get this party started off right for the London crowd.
Nearly 6-feet tall, Danny Silva is an imposing figure in the featherweight division, but a solid wrestling attack can mitigate any size advantage and that’s what we’ll see from Campbell here. He’s going to start fast, change levels, and search for a body lock to take Silva to the mat. From there, Campbell will take over with his expert ground-and-pound, perhaps even searching for a submission once he starts breaking Silva’s defenses down.
As confident as Silva is on his feet, he lacks the pure punching power needed to deter a grappler like Campbell from pressing forward early and often. A discouraged Silva will eventually succumb to a submission or strikes on the mat.
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Shem Rock def. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Shanelle Dyer def. Ravena Oliveira
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