Madness awaits.
Good luck as you try to spot the perfect 12 vs. 5 upset pick, so you can lord your Cinderella-spotting skills over your buddies. If you’ll allow me a word of advice as you fill out your brackets: I like the upset potential of the 11-seeds this year much better than the 12-seeds.
While we await the games, here are eight burning thoughts and predictions off this NCAA Tournament bracket.
March Madness region breakdown: South | East | Midwest | West
Duke is No. 1 team, but Arizona is frontrunner after good region draw
The selection committee did Duke dirty.
The Blue Devils earned the No. 1 overall seed, but big whoop. Their prize? Getting placed into a region that includes an all-star cast of coaches.
Lined up in Duke’s way are Dan Hurley, Tom Izzo, Bill Self and Rick Pitino. That’s some kind of reward for the tournament’s top seed.
As if Duke hadn’t absorbed enough bad luck already with the recent injury to point guard Caleb Foster, now it’s got to solve a who’s who list of coaches.
The true seeding affirms Duke’s East Region has the best collection of Nos. 1 through 4 seeds. Duke already played and beat Michigan State and Kansas in the regular season. That doesn’t mean it would relish a rematch.
Even Duke’s second-round game, potentially against No. 8 Ohio State, brews a recipe for trouble. The Buckeyes are hot, and they can hang with premier teams. They recently beat Purdue, and they gave Michigan a 40-minute fight in the Big Ten tournament.
In fact, Duke might prefer to teleport into the West Region, where Arizona is the No. 1 seed.
With Duke facing the region of doom, Arizona should be viewed as tournament frontrunners. Arizona already emerged on top of the nation’s best conference. Now, the Wildcats must exorcise some postseason demons. They last reached the Final Four in 2001, with a bundle of flops since then.
Better to face old demons, though, than face the teams in Duke’s way of the Final Four.
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Miami Ohio deserved its NCAA Tournament bid
Mid-majors give the NCAA Tournament its irresistible flavor, and the committee got it right by awarding at-large bids to 10th-seeded Santa Clara and 11th-seeded Miami (Ohio).
Santa Clara twice beat Saint Mary’s, a 7-seed in this bracket. Sure, Santa Clara went 0-3 in games against Gonzaga, but the Broncos played the Zags closer each time than Kentucky did when it got routed by Mark Few’s crew. Now, Santa Clara gets its own crack at UK in a 7 vs. 10 game.
The committee directed the RedHawks to a First Four game. That’s fine, considering their poor strength of schedule. Kicking Miami out of the bracket entirely, though, based on a single loss, would have been too heavy-handed. This is an instance of the First Four providing some real value. Let a game in Dayton, Ohio, determine whether 31-win Miami is worthy of the first round.
Nobody got snubbed, and March Madness expansion unnecessary
If we needed more proof that the NCAA Tournament does not need to expand, we got it. The first two teams left out of the field were Oklahoma (19-15) and Auburn (17-16).
When we’re spotlighting a 15-loss team with barely a top-50 NET ranking as the biggest “snub,” that means there were no snubs.
Could Oklahoma or Auburn have won an NCAA Tournament game? Yes, they might have won a game or possibly even two, if selected. Or, either could’ve been routed in its opener. Bottom line: Neither played with enough consistency to earn a ticket, and nobody with Elite Eight potential got omitted from this 68-team bracket.
As rumblings of a 72- or 76-team bracket persist, expansion remains quite obviously unnecessary. It would only prop up the dregs of the Power conferences.
First-round upset special: No. 10 Santa Clara beats No. 7 Kentucky
It must have been painful for Big Blue Nation watching John Calipari and Arkansas win the SEC tournament. Well, that’ll be nothing compared to the outrage that’ll radiate from Kentucky if Mark Pope falls in the first round to cap his second season.
Santa Clara can pile up points, and Kentucky specializes in falling behind, before trying to mount furious rallies.
Santa Clara finished as the West Coast Conference’s runner-up. In Kentucky’s last taste of the WCC, it lost to Gonzaga by 35 points in December.
First-round upset special, Part II: No. 11 VCU beats No. 6 North Carolina
The Tar Heels’ Final Four potential absorbed a gut punch when top scorer Caleb Wilson suffered a season-ending injury earlier this month. That’s reflected in North Carolina’s seeding. If Wilson was healthy, UNC probably would be more in the vicinity of a 4-seed.
VCU is hot, winners of 16 of its past 17 games. Its credentials include a November rout of Virginia Tech, a 19-win team from the ACC.
A frequent NCAA qualifier, VCU last sprang a first-round upset a decade ago. Dust off the glass slipper.
Second-round game I’m dying to see
If chalk holds in the first-round games in Portland, Oregon, then No. 3 Gonzaga would face No. 6 Brigham Young in the second round. That’s an opportunity to see one of the nation’s best pure scorers, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, go against one of the nation’s best defensive teams, Gonzaga.
Some NBA Draft experts expect Dybantsa to be selected with the No. 1 pick. Before that, enjoy his college curtain call this March Madness.
Big 12, Big Ten represent in Final Four
Last year, all four 1-seeds reached the Final Four. Surely, that won’t repeat … right? Right.
The SEC earned the most bids, but the Big 12 is the nation’s best conference, and I expect it to represent ‘til the end, with No. 1 Arizona and No. 2 Houston reaching the Final Four. I’ve also got No. 1 Michigan and No. 3 Michigan State in the Final Four.
Arizona starts a lineup full of double-digit scorers. Houston has an excellent blend of proven veterans and premier freshmen. Michigan plays the nation’s best defense and scores plenty, too. As for Michigan State, trust March Madness virtuoso Izzo inside the rough-and-tumble East Region.
National championship pick: Arizona beats Houston
The past 25 years were filled with NCAA Tournament heartbreak for Arizona. It’s time to end that madness.
In the year of the freshman, Arizona starts three really good ones, including top scorer Brayden Burries. But, as the saying goes, old guards win in March. I’m all-in on Arizona because of its do-it-all senior point guard Jaden Bradley, the Big 12 player of the year and the soul of this team.
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA Tournament hot takes: Is this Arizona’s year? Bluebloods beware
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