Christian Mbilli thinks Canelo Alvarez has lost some power, and the results give him a case. Canelo has not stopped an opponent since Caleb Plant in 2021. His next eight fights all went the distance, including losses to Dmitry Bivol and Terence Crawford. Mbilli believes October 31 is the right time to face him.
“He’s old now, but still very dangerous, and he has very good power. Very, very good counterpunch. And I think it’s the best time for me to have this fight,” Mbilli told DAZN interviewer Todd Grisham.
Asked what weakness he could exploit, Mbilli added: “I think now his power is going down a little bit, but he’s still dangerous. He’s still competitive, but I think five years ago, he was at a different level. But now, he’s a little bit down, I think.”
Canelo’s stoppage drought does not prove his punches no longer hurt. It may say as much about how often he throws them. Against Crawford, he had to chase a target who kept changing position. He spent energy resetting his feet and reacting to feints, often without getting close enough to land.
Mbilli would make Canelo work in a different way. He comes forward throwing combinations and attacks the body. If he can keep Canelo defending for long stretches, Canelo may have less energy to put behind his counters. A hard punch here and there will buy him little rest if Mbilli takes it and goes straight back to work.
There’s a catch for Mbilli: getting close enough to work Canelo’s body means walking into his counters. Derevyanchenko caught Mbilli with right hands even after tearing his left biceps. Canelo will spot those same openings if Mbilli keeps coming in with his head on the center line.
Mbilli has to make Canelo defend without giving him easy shots in return. Dig to the body, stay close, and keep punching when Canelo wants a breather. If Mbilli takes too many clean counters on the way in, though, that nonstop pace won’t last.
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