Why KTM would be wise to prepare for a future without Acosta

In any deteriorated relationship, there may come a point of no return where a breakup – if handled well – is the least traumatic solution for both sides. That is when mourning sets in: the period during which the wound heals and, once completed, both parties can face the future with clarity.

Normally applied to romantic couples, but the concept also applies to professional bonds, like the story written together by KTM and Pedro Acosta – a story seemingly destined to end after next season.

You don’t need a psychology degree to understand that if this does happen, it will be the Austrian manufacturer that will miss the cornerstone of its project the most. Acosta is a product that was born, raised and shaped in its academy, and one who, after trying everything, still could not be convinced to stay with the family that helped him grow – the one that hoped to provide him the tools to fight for a MotoGP title.

Acosta’s contract with KTM expires at the end of next year, which is also when the deals of all the major players in MotoGP come to an end. In recent weeks, the Mattighofen-based brand has not stopped sending him messages of unconditional affection, temporarily putting aside its usual tone of self-confidence to essentially bow before him.

“I feel we still have some time, not much, to show Pedro we are the right partners for him,” declared Pit Beirer, KTM’s motorsport director, both in Portugal and Valencia – the last two stops on the calendar. Unfortunately for the former motocross rider, the performance of the RC16 has been one of the main sources of frustration for Acosta.

But the bike’s limitations are not the only factor discouraging the two-time world champion (Moto3 in 2021 and Moto2 in 2023). The inconsistency of the prototype goes hand in hand with the uncertainty surrounding KTM from a business standpoint. We are talking about an organisation that has been on life support after its share price lost more than five times its value over a four-year period (from €89.6 per share on 1 December 2021, to €16.4 last Wednesday). The company has also accumulated several billion Euros in debt, was placed under intervention, and changed ownership.

In this sense, it should be noted that Bajaj Auto now fully controls the company, after the European Commission recently approved the Indian giant’s acquisition of the 50.1% stake in Pierer Industrie AG previously held by Stefan Pierer, KTM’s former CEO.

This move will come with a reconfiguration of the board, reducing the number of members and pushing out executives aligned with Pierer. In short, a major shake-up implying a redefinition of priorities – and it is not entirely clear what role the MotoGP division will play in this new direction.

With all this in mind, Acosta’s discourse has shifted significantly throughout the season – so much so that it reflects his ever-changing state of mind. His rebellious spirit early in the year gave way to disillusionment so deep that, in his eyes, the only remedy was an exit already aimed at 2026 – a move KTM, predictably, did not allow.

Once resigned to honouring his contract, the Murcian rider focused on maximising the material he had available, aiming to show the world – and any brand interested in him – that at 21 years old he has lost none of the magic that once led many to label him as “the next big thing,” just as they once did with Marc Marquez and Valentino Rossi.

After this shift in mindset, #37’s numbers stabilised upward. The five podium finishes he secured in the second half of the season, along with three fourth-place finishes and a fifth, combined with only two DNFs, allowed him to mount a comeback that landed him fourth in the championship standings. Acosta finished the year with 307 points – nearly double the tally of Brad Binder (155), his team-mate in the factory KTM garage.

Naturally, this strong performance has become Acosta’s best-selling point. These same numbers, especially when contrasted with those of his team-mates, have not gone unnoticed by the suitors the young rider still has.

Pedro Acosta, Red Bull KTM Factory Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose Photography / LAT Images / via Getty Images

Even though Acosta has refrained from explicitly stating his intentions regarding the now-open rider market, Autosport understands that his priority is to ride a Ducati – preferably the factory one. Whether this can happen, however, depends on a chain of events that must unfold over the coming months. The first of these, unsurprisingly, is Marquez’s contract renewal.

The Catalan rider’s overwhelming dominance has made Ducati fully commit to him, marking the continuation of their partnership as the brand’s main priority. According to Autosport sources, the first meetings between Marquez’s representatives and Ducati management to begin exploring a new deal took place months ago – even before the #93 crashed in Indonesia. That right-arm injury halted not only his on-track activity but also those discussions, which are expected to resume as soon as he recovers.

Assuming Ducati will do everything possible to keep the multi-champion – and vice versa – the biggest question revolves around the salary figure they will agree to. That number will determine what can be offered to the second rider, whomever that may be.

At this point, it’s worth noting that Francesco Bagnaia still has a chance to turn around his form in 2026. In any case, considering his role in Ducati’s history, his resume, and, of course, his nationality, there is no better candidate than him – depending on his results.

If Bagnaia does not bounce back, Autosport understands that Acosta stands ahead of the rest of the contenders, though choosing him would mean disregarding the hierarchical structure Ducati has followed since producing the best bike on the grid.

Proof of Acosta’s status was the willingness displayed to wait as long as necessary for him to join VR46 in 2026 to replace Franco Morbidelli – a move that ultimately did not happen because KTM demanded a multi-million-euro compensation for releasing him.

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– The Autosport.com Team