UFC 326 goes down this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, headlined by a BMF title fight between two of the most legendary fighters currently competing in the UFC: Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira.
The two first fought over a decade ago, in a featherweight bout that ended before it even got going. Since then, both men have gone on to build Hall of Fame-level resumes, winning championships and setting records. Now, both men appear to be in the final chapters of their illustrious careers, and both want to continue carving out a legacy as one of the greatest of all time.
So, let’s look at how both Holloway and Oliveira can add to their legacies at UFC 326.
Paths to Victory for Max Holloway at UFC 326
It’s steep competition, but in my estimation, Max Holloway is already one of the 10 greatest fighters in UFC history. For nearly a decade, “Blessed” has been at the top of the sport and one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. That sort of longevity is incredibly rare, as is the résumé of names he’s beaten. And he’s not done yet.
Holloway is still only 34 years old, and while I’ve expected him to start declining for years at this point, the man simply refuses to do so. Yes, he’s carrying a lot of miles on him, and yes, he’s a little less durable than he was at the peak of his powers, but Holloway is still astonishingly near the peak of his game despite 14 years of fighting at the highest level. Actually, in some ways, he’s still getting better.
The hallmark of Holloway’s game was always his insane volume and durability. That is a deadly combination in MMA because it leaves so few options for opponents to win fights. If a guy is going to land more punches than you, you have to land bigger punches than him and get a finish. But Holloway is almost impossible to finish, meaning the math doesn’t math for his opponents.
But, if there was a critique of Holloway’s game, it’s that he has not always been a huge finisher himself. Sure, if he can land enough punches to accumulate a critical mass of damage, that’s curtains, but absent that, Holloway mostly was going to outwork you over 25 minutes. But in the past few years, we’ve seen Holloway add real pop to his shots, especially when moving up to 155. Now, not only can he pile on the damage, he can make opponents pay, too. That adds another layer of danger to fighting him.
And against Oliveira, that additional layer may be huge. Unlike Holloway, Oliveira is a Get-Or-Get-Got guy, meaning he’s not playing to outwork someone over 25 minutes; he’s playing to finish them early. Holloway may be able to simply fend “Do Bronx” off with combinations and footwork, but with this newfound pop in his shots, he can also stymie Oliveira’s advances right out of the gate.
The biggest thing for Holloway, though, is to keep his back off the fence. Oliveira has a sneaky-good wrestling game, and while Holloway has always been very good at defending takedowns, if Oliveira can close the distance and create tie-ups, he can sneak to the back. That’s the one place Max can’t win the fight, so he needs to prevent that outcome at all costs.
Paths to Victory for Charles Oliveira at UFC 326
While I don’t think Oliveira is quite at the same tier of greatness as Holloway, that’s not to say he’s a bum. Oliveira is probably one of the five greatest lightweights of all time (it’s a stacked division, with a lot of great names) and very likely in the Top 50 fighters ever. That’s an incredible achievement given the first half of his career. Basically, until 2018, Oliveira was a fun action-fighter who most people would have assumed was never fighting for a title. But then he put it all together and went on a career-defining run that moved him into historical conversations. We should all aspire to that level of late—blooming.
The straw that stirs the drink for Oliveira is his grappling. Before he made his lightweight title run, Oliveira was just a fun, funky grappler. Then, Oliveira added legitimate striking skills, improved his wrestling, and used the threat of his grappling to marry everything together and cover up for his greatest weakness — durability — and voila! You’ve got one of the best fighters in the world!
I’ve talked about this before, but Oliveira’s career resurgence was driven by one simple trick: he hacked MMA. Owning one of the most dangerous guards in the sport, fighters DID NOT want to go to the ground with him, because, for years, that was the way to lose to Oliveira. Well, that opened a lot of possibilities for Oliveira to simply recklessly pressure opponents on the feet, because even if they hurt him, he can drop to guard, and no one will pursue. Meanwhile, if he can hurt them, that only creates more of an opportunity for him to take the back and choke them out. This is an asymmetrical math problem — I get lots of chances, you get one — and it carried him straight to the lightweight title.
And it can carry him here, too. Unlike Islam Makhachev or Arman Tsarukyan, Holloway is deeply unlikely to engage in grappling with Oliveira if he can help it. That means that on the feet, “Do Bronx” is free to recklessly march Holloway down, bombing away with his biggest shots in the hope of landing a good one. If Max cracks him, down to guard, recover, rinse and repeat. Max’s move to 155 may have helped him with some durability concerns, but Oliveira is still a massive hitter, and he doesn’t have to spark Holloway, just hurt him. That leads to the back, which leads to victory.
And on that note, Oliveira also needs to try to get to the back, even if he can’t crack Holloway. For as good as Holloway’s takedown defense has been, in truth, he’s fought very few grappling-first fighters during his tenure, and no one with the penchant for sneaking to the back that Oliveira has. I don’t know if Oliveira can tap Max from the backpack, but I do know that if he gets there, Max has no ability to harm him, making it the best possible position for him in this fight.
For both men, the question remains: how much do they have left in the tank? Holloway is 34 years old, and Oliveira is 36, but they’ve both been fighting for over 15 years. That is a lot of miles, most of which were contested at the highest level of the sport. The body can’t do this forever, and while we’ve seen signs of dropping off from both, any next fight might suddenly be the cliff. I don’t know that it will happen, but it’s always possible.
I’m genuinely very excited for this fight, both as a bout between legends and as a stylistically intriguing matchup. Oliveira’s hyperdynamic offense is one of the natural counters to Holloway’s heavy-volume style, and maybe Holloway is diminished enough for that to work more effectively than previously. Conversely, Holloway is one of the most durable fighters in history, and he’s adding more power to his game, while Oliveira was never super durable and is definitely showing signs of slowing down.
For me, the biggest difference is the weight. While both men are getting older, I think the move to lightweight has done wonders to help prolong Holloway’s prime. Less of a weight cut means he’s more durable, which counteracts his aging, while moving up minimizes his loss of speed. Plus, he’s adding power. All of that is in contrast to Oliveira, who is older, has more miles, and has no mitigating factors.
I think Max cracks Charles early and hammers home the coffin nails.
Max Holloway def. Charles Oliveira via TKO (punches) — 2:37, Round 1.
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