Going six weeks without the UFC has been a virtual impossibility over the past few years, but that’s exactly what the poor, suffering fans have had to endure since the most recent visit to the APEX in early December. Heck, it’s been so long that the APEX is now the Meta APEX!
But the boys are back in town, with two boys chasing a golden opportunity, headliners Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett. This time last year, neither “The Highlight” nor “The Baddy” were particularly close to a title shot, but with undisputed champion Ilia Topuria taking a hiatus for personal reasons, the stars lined up just right for the two fan favorites to face off for an interim title—and possibly more, if UFC CEO Dana White’s follows up the proclamation that Saturday’s winner gets Topuria next.
It’s not Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes, but you could do worse for a co-main event than former UFC champion Sean O’Malley taking on Song Yadong in a bantamweight bout with substantial contender implications. Two-fight losing skid? A mere bump in the road for “The Suga Show,” because you can bet if O’Malley puts on a vintage striking performance against Song, that Petr Yan rematch awaits.
In other main card action, heavyweights Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Derrick Lewis throw down in a fight with low-key contender implications, flyweights Natalia Silva and Rose Namajunas clash in a fight with high-key contender implications, and Arnold Allen takes on Jean Silva in a guaranteed featherweight thriller.
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Jan. 24. The three-fight early preliminary card begins at 5:30 p.m. ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 7 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 9 p.m. ET with the entire event streaming live on Paramount+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Justin Gaethje (5) vs. Paddy Pimblett (T11)
There are so many narratives surrounding Justin Gaethje that are clouding my judgment.
- Whether he wants to acknowledge it or not, is there a chance this is his last fight? I’m always hesitant to pick guys who have even half of half a foot out the door, especially when the stakes are so high and when you’re dealing with an opponent as dangerous as Paddy Pimblett. If Gaethje is even considering retirement, that could dull his edge just enough for him to have an off night.
- He’s been kind of testy this week. Is that a good thing? A bad thing? I mean, when we’re talking about Gaethje, we should all want him to be in a bit of a bad mood, right? Well, all of us except for Pimblett.
- IS IT STAPH OR NOT, JUSTIN???
I bring all of that up because on paper, Gaethje should kick Pimblett’s butt. Unless you’re a Khabib- or do Bronx-level grappler—and maybe Pimblett is—you’re not dominating Gaethje on the ground. Pimblett has always had raw power, but enough to threaten Gaethje? Come on. And is there really a chance Pimblett flat-out out-strikes Gaethje for 25 minutes? Come on.
So I’m being sensible, really. As much as I’ve touted Pimblett as a dark horse title contender for years—and guess what? I bet he fights for a title again someday even if he loses—I think his championship dreams hit a snag here. Gaethje beats him on the feet and becomes the first-ever two-time interim UFC champion. Cue the fireworks.
Sean O’Malley (5) vs. Song Yadong (8)
Sean O’Malley, the stage is set for your comeback. Don’t mess it up.
The only reason O’Malley isn’t a bigger favorite here (hovering around -215 on FanDuel) is the two-fight losing streak he’s on, but I think we all understand the context there. Getting swarmed twice by Merab Dvalishvili does not a shameful skid make. Yes, you can question whether O’Malley has taken his eye off the ball since winning the championship as he seems happy being a wacky social media bro at times, but we know how good he can be and if he’s serious about making one last run to the title, he’ll be at his best Saturday.
Song’s strengths are obvious. He hits like a truck and when he wants to he can wrestle some, which could prove highly valuable when dealing with O’Malley. However, O’Malley has a considerable reach advantage, is highly difficult to hit unless your name is Petr Yan, and also difficult to takedown unless your name is Merab Dvalishvili. I’d also argue O’Malley’s accuracy gives him the better chance of landing a one-hitter quitter even if you want to give Song the edge in pure punching power.
If Song can set the tone early and give O’Malley little room to breathe, business could pick up, but the safe and smart bet is O’Malley picking Song apart en route to a finish in Round 2 or 3, or a decision nod.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (7) vs. Derrick Lewis (13)
The unstoppable force meets the immovable object with a 2026 twist.
In theory, there’s no slowing down Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who went from non-factor to beloved heavyweight with a rash of activity in 2025 that saw him win four out of five fights, including two wins in the month of November alone. Not only was “Salsa Boy” winning, he found his finishing touch, racking up three knockouts last year to achieve surprising notoriety.
On the other side of this main card matchup you have Derrick Lewis, who, for lack of a kinder phrase, refuses to go away. A few weeks shy of his 41st birthday, Lewis had plenty of opportunities to fade into obscurity over the past few years, but with his unique alchemy of knockout power and wacky post-fight antics, he’s not only stayed in the spotlight, he might damn well be one win away from a UFC White House title fight. He has also knocked off a hype train or two in his day, which feels relevant here.
Cortes-Acosta is good. Very good. For a heavyweight, anyway. But I’ve been on the wrong end of the “Derrick Lewis is going to roll over” pick before. Not today, my friends.
Natalia Silva (3, P4P-7) vs. Rose Namajunas (9, P4P-14)
It’s been said that Rose Namajunas is more dangerous as the predator than prey and we’ve seen flashes of that at 125. Finishes at the higher weight class have eluded her (she hasn’t ended a fight inside the distance since that incredible head kick of Zhang Weili in 2021), but she hasn’t been a fish out of water. She’s looked well ahead of mid-tier flyweights like Amanda Ribas, Tracy Cortez, and Miranda Maverick, and was competitive in losses to Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot. There’s still some championship-quality “Thug Rose” in there.
The problem is there’s plenty of championship-quality in Natalia Silva. Like, right now. “Natty Ice” has been a popular pick of the MMA Fighting Crew to dethrone Valentina Shevchenko (or claim a vacant title if Shevchenko exits for whatever reason) and I don’t see Namajunas altering that trajectory. Remember what I said about the Blanchfield and Fiorot fights? Same story, Namajunas won’t be outclassed, but she will consistently be beaten to the punch. And I don’t have a lot of faith in her just bull-rushing Silva and tapping her. Again, it’s been a while.
Silva’s speed is the big factor here. She’s younger and a natural flyweight, so when you add those physical advantages to her striking expertise, that’s too much for the always game Namajunas to overcome.
Arnold Allen (7) vs. Jean Silva (8)
My bold prediction here: Arnold Allen and Jean Silva are about to set the bar for 2026 Fight of the Year.
These two have all the motivation in the world to put on a career-best performance, with Allen always looking to make up for lost time and Silva determined to refortify his contender case after suffering his first UFC loss and watching Diego Lopes waltz into a rematch with Alexander Volkanovski. Whatever you consider to be the best version of these fighters, you’re going to see it tonight.
Give me Allen, even though I don’t feel the slightest bit confident about it. The knock on Allen is that he’s not a finisher (fair) and he hasn’t been able to win the big one (evidence is against him so far). Look closer and you’ll find a smart fighter who picks his spots when it comes to pushing the pace and has put scares into Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, two of the featherweight division’s best.
Silva is never a bad pick, of course. The emotionally charged Brazilian can KO anyone at 145 pounds, even someone like Arnold who has rarely been badly hurt in the cage. One mistake from Allen, this is over, and Silva is right back to breathing down the neck of whoever is champion after UFC 325.
Allen doesn’t make many mistakes, or at least that’s what I expect this time, so I have him winning a decision after a tense three rounds.
Umar Nurmagomedov (3) def. Deiveson Figueiredo (7)
Ateba Gautier def. Andrey Pulyaev
Modestas Bukauskas def. Nikita Krylov (14)
Charles Johnson def. Alex Perez (12)
Alexander Hernandez def. Michael Johnson
Josh Hokit def. Denzel Freeman
Ty Miller def. Adam Fugitt
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