It’s a good thing the baseball season is still two months away. San Diego Padres president of baseball operations/general manager A.J. Preller has plenty of time to upgrade the roster before the start of the new season. It could be a problem if he doesn’t make the needed improvements before March 26, Opening Day against the Detroit Tigers.
With the roster still missing a 1B/DH and at least one starting pitcher, the projections for 2026 are not favorable, according to certain projections.
There are two different projections found on the FanGraphs pages. The Steamer projections are the work of Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom. The definition from MLB:
Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. On Fangraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.
These are the objective evaluations that are available to fans and media alike.
There is another system published on FanGraphs, the ZiPS projections developed by Dave Zymborski. The Zymborski Projection System (ZiPS) is not based on human evaluation but an algorithm developed by Zymborski.
ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections. The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier. For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations.
These two systems can differ significantly at times. The projections begin with a preseason posting of stats for all players and teams and are updated as the season goes along, based on performance.
As of now, the Padres are projected to have a .496 winning percentage from Steamer. ZiPS is more optimistic, with a high 80s to 90-win season. They would only have 80 wins based on the Steamer numbers after removing the players that have left the team. With Michael King being the only significant returning player, the Padres rotation does not measure up as a playoff team, according to those Steamer numbers.
Both Steamers and ZiPS uses WAR as the final tool to measure a player’s value. Specific stats are also included in the projection but the overall evaluation is expressed in WAR (Wins Above Replacement). For pitchers, their ERA and WAR is the overall valuation tool as well as games pitched and innings pitched.
The Padres bullpen is already acknowledged as one of the best, if not the best, in baseball. With the rotation and lineup being the factors still in flux, I limited my research to those areas.
Offense
For the 2025 season, Fernando Tatis Jr. topped the team with a fWAR of 6.1 (FanGraphs stat). The next closest Padre was Manny Machado at 3.8 WAR. Xander Bogaerts came in at 3.2 and Jackson Merrill at 3.0. Jake Cronenworth had a 2.9 WAR but then the WAR fell off significantly to Gavin Sheets at 1.3. Ramon Laureano played only 50 games with the Padres so his WAR only reflected those games. He had a 6.0 offensive WAR but his defense brought his overall down to 0.7. All other Padres were under 1.0.
For reference, 1-2 is considered below average. 2.0 is an average player with 2-3 being a good player. 3-4 is considered All-Star level and 4-5 is a superstar. 6 or 6-plus is an MVP candidate-type player.
With the season that Tatis Jr. had offensively, the majority of his WAR was accumulated defensively as his offense was good but not MVP level.
Pitchers WAR
For the starting pitchers, Nick Pivetta topped out at 3.7 WAR and Dylan Cease had a 3.4. They were the only two starters above 1.0 in WAR in 2025.
Projections: Offense
Here are some of the numbers projected for the Padres players for 2026. I’m listing both Steamers and ZiPS for comparison and listing other notable stats projected with their WAR.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has a projected 4.9 with ZiPS and 5.1 with Steamers. He has a similar batting average projected with both (.275 with Steamers and .265 with ZiPS). He is projected to hit 30 (Steamers) or 26 (ZiPS) homers with 80 (Z) or 78 (Z) RBI.
Manny Machado has a projected 3.2 WAR (Z) or 3.3 (S) and a batting average of .258 (Z) and .268 (S). They believe his home run totals will drop again in 2026 to 23 (Z) and 26 (S) with 84 (Z) and 85 (S) RBI.
Jackson Merrill is projected to take a significant step up, undoubtedly presuming that he will have better health in the coming season. His WAR increases to 4.3 (Z) and 4.1 (S) with a .270 (Z) or .269 (S) batting average. His home run total is 20 (Z) and 23 (S) with 75 (Z) and 77 (S) RBI.
Xander Bogaerts has a 3.3 WAR (Z) versus a 2.9 (S) with a batting average of .259 (Z) and .270 (S). He is projected to hit 10 (Z) and 13 (S) homers with 52 (Z) and 57 (S) RBI.
Jake Cronenworth is also projected to take a step down from his 2025 season. His WAR is projected to be 2.0 (Z) and 1.6 (S) with his batting average dropping to .233 (Z) and .236 (S). With his home run 12 (Z) and 13 (S) numbers and his RBI 55 (Z) and 56 (S) numbers also similar. His drop would be due to an assumed decrease in his on base ability or his defense dipping.
Ramon Laureano, in his first full season with the Padres, is projected to have a 2.2 (Z) and 1.2 (S) WAR with a .242 (Z) and .243 (S) average. He is projected to hit 17 homers in both with 58 (Z) and 57 (S) RBI.
Projections: Starters
None of the Padres starters are projected to have an ERA below 3.55, with Michael King projected to have 22 games pitched and 119 innings to achieve that ERA with a 2.2 WAR. Nick Pivetta has a projected 26 games started and 156 innings pitched with a 3.87 ERA and 2.3 WAR. He is obviously not viewed as being able to replicate his 2025 success.
Joe Musgrove is viewed conservatively in his first season back after UCL surgery. He projects to 16 starts and 91 innings with a 3.87 ERA and 1.4 WAR. JP Sears is seen with a 4.0 ERA in 28 games started and 144 innings pitched and a 0.8 WAR. Randy Vasquez brings up the rear with a 4.68 ERA in 25 starts and 125 innings pitched and a 0.7 WAR.
Any significant upgrade to the roster will improve the overall team projections but it will be up to the players to outperform their individual projections.
With most of the major free agents in MLB now off the board, it could be a good time to sign the mid-tier players that Preller would presumably be aiming to target. A quality bat and mid-rotation starter is just what is needed to improve the overall projections.
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