Royals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Tonight’s MLB Game

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The Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves continue their three-game series Saturday night at Truist Park.

Reynaldo López makes his first start in exactly a year for Atlanta, squaring off against Michael Wacha.

My Royals vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks explain why Bobby Witt, Jr. should have plenty of success on Saturday, March 28. 

Royals vs Braves predictions

Royals vs Braves best bet: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)

Bobby Witt Jr. was outstanding in the World Baseball Classic and was the only Kansas City Royals hitter to show up Friday night as he collected a pair of singles.

He could’ve done more, given he posted a 94.3 exit velocity and a .856 xBA on the three pitches he put into play. That includes a double-play grounder in the first with a .660 xBA and 103.9 exit velo.

Atlanta Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez saw a massive dip in fastball velocity in spring training, averaging just 89.2 mph in his last outing.

Witt will punish that lack of velocity with an extra-base hit.

COVERS INTEL:

Witt posted an xSLG of .737 Friday night on the three fastballs he put into play.

Royals vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)

I expect both starters to have command issues, setting us up for some early runs.

Lopez had just 13 Ks in just over 15 IP in the spring. Along with the velocity issues, he struggled with command as he issued seven free passes. He also surrendered seven earned runs in his last two starts, encompassing 8 1/3 IP.

Michael Wacha had a rough spring as well, posting a 6.89 ERA with seven walks in 13 2/3  IP. He also allowed a longball in each of the last three outings

Royals vs Braves SGP

• Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases

• Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 strikeouts

Royals vs Braves home run pick: Drake Baldwin (+420)

There was no sign of a sophomore slump from Drake Baldwin this spring, as he spent his time slapping piss missiles. He followed that up by crushing one against the Royals on Friday night.

Wacha has a decent arsenal, but he becomes very FB/CH reliant against opposite-side hitters. Those two pitches accounted for two-thirds of his output vs. LHB last season, with a cutter mixed in some of the time.

Baldwin posted a 23% barrel rate and 74% hard-hit rate in spring training. If he’s going to see a limited pitch array, this price is exceptional value.

2026 Transparency record

• Best bets: 0-0, 0.0 units

Royals vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Kansas City +122 | Atlanta -135

• Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-170) | Atlanta -1.5 (+149)

• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Royals vs Braves trend

The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 49 games at home (+16.25 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Braves.

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