Only one thing feels certain in the West this season — chaos.
There are 12 teams — 13 if you believe in the San Antonio Spurs — who expect to make the playoffs but just eight spots. There is no margin for error, injuries that keep a star out for just a couple of weeks could tip the scales, and some coaches will feel their seats getting warm early in the season.
The closest thing to a certainty is that Oklahoma City, Dallas and Denver are going to be very good, the Trail Blazers are not, but just about everything in between will be bunched up. Let’s break it all down.
Who is the favorite to win Western Conference Finals 2025?
Here are the current odds to win the Western Conference, courtesy of our partners at Bet MGM (odds to win the title in parenthesis).
1. Oklahoma City +300 (+500)
T-2. Denver +500 (+1100)
T-2. Dallas +500 (+1200)
T-2. Minnesota +500 (+1200)
5. Phoenix +1200 (+2000)
NBA Western Conference predictions 2024-25
TITLE CONTENDERS
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
The only thing I feel comfortable about in this entire story is the Thunder to finish with the No. 1 seed — they did it last season, then added two key role players in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (even with Hartenstein out until December with a fractured hand, it’s not going to slow them much).
The next three on this list could finish in any order and it would be expected, they are all on the same tier for a reason. With Luka Doncic in Dallas (my MVP pick) and Nikola Jokic in Denver, we know they will be elite. I will add that I’m less confident in Minnesota (and almost knocked them down to the next tier), I’m not sold on the Julius Randle fit, especially come the postseason (but Donte DiVincenzo might make up for that).
FRINGE CONTENDERS (WE HAVE QUESTIONS)
5. Phoenix Suns
6. Memphis Grizzlies
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
7. New Orleans Pelicans
8. Sacramento Kings
9. Golden State Warriors
10. Los Angeles Lakers
11. Houston Rockets
12. Los Angeles Clippers
The reality is 5-12 is so bunched up in the West that this group could finish in any order and it would be unsurprising. I predict that five games ultimately will separate the No. 6 seed team that avoids the play-in and the No. 11 seed team that misses the postseason entirely. It’s going to be that tight.
Phoenix and Memphis are on their own “Fringe Contender” tier because I believe their ceilings are higher than the rest of the teams in this group. If Mike Budeholzer can get the Suns to play defense and Tyus Jones works out as well as some of us expect at the point, a Phoenix team with Olympians Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are legit contenders (it’s mostly health concerns, and last season, that keep them out of the top tier). Memphis was the No. 2 seed and a team on the rise for a couple of seasons until it was desiccated by injuries a season ago, if Ja Morant returns to form and Zach Edey can hold down the paint, this could be a top-four team in the West.
Every team left in this group has a lot of talent but faces difficult questions: How does New Orleans look playing small with Herb Jones as a starting center? Can Sacramento get enough stops to win shooting so much from the midrange? Who is the Warriors’ second shot creator after Stephen Curry? Is J.J. Redick up to the task with the Lakers (and can they get another relatively healthy season from LeBron James and Anthony Davis)? How big a step forward will all the youth in Houston take? Is a return to a heavy dose of James Harden going to work for the Clippers (and how many games does Kawhi Leonard play)?
HOPEFUL PLAY-IN TEAMS
13. Spurs
Victor Wembanyama may be enough to get the Spurs to the play-in on his own, and having Chris Paul as a rather bossy mentor will be good for this young team. They are capable of making the play-in, especially if Stephon Castle steps up like some of us believe he can, but there are a lot of good teams in front of them.
LOTTERY BOUND
14. Utah Jazz
15. Portland Trail Blazers
Utah’s not a bad team, especially with Lauri Markkanen at the four — he is an underrated player — but they lack the depth to challenge in this West and will pivot toward the lottery at some point this season. Portland has already signaled its intentions, but it will be interesting to see how their wealth of young talent starts to develop and who will emerge as a real part of the future for the Blazers.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
First Round
Thunder over Kings
Mavericks over Pelicans
Nuggets over Grizzlies
Suns over Timberwolves
Semi-Finals
Thunder over Suns
Mavericks over Nuggets
Western Conference Finals
Thunder over Mavericks
NBA FINALS PREDICTION
Celtics over Thunder
Picking the Celtics feels boring and safe, but they’re the only team that has answered enough questions for me to feel comfortable selecting them. However, if Kristaps Porzingis (or another key player) is not healthy, a team like New York or Philadelphia could take their place in the Finals.
I feel more confident in the Thunder taking a step forward and coming out of the West — although Dallas returning to the Finals would not be a shock, the Mavs upgraded this offseason — but I don’t see anyone from the West beating a healthy Celtics team. Not this season, anyway.
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