NBA mock draft 2026: Update after college basketball entry deadline with final lottery odds

The 2026 NBA Draft class has been hyped for years. The big pay off is finally coming on May 10 with the drawing of the draft lottery, and now the odds for the ping-pong balls have been finalized.

The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Indiana Pacers earned the top odds with a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings each have an 11.5 percent chance at No. 1, while the Memphis Grizzlies have the next-best odds at nine percent. The Atlanta Hawks have a 6.8 percent chance at winning the top-pick thanks to their brilliant trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, and then Atlanta also has another three percent chance at the top pick thanks to swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 6.7 percent chance at No. 1, the Chicago Bulls have a 4.5 percent chance at winning the lottery, and the Golden State Warriors have a two percent chance at the first pick. The Thunder (1.5 percent thanks to a swap with the Clippers), Heat (1 percent), and Hornets (0.5 percent) round out the lottery.

This draft class has already lost some talent to NIL money. UConn’s Braylon Mullins, Duke’s Patrick Ngongba, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas, and Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou were all projected first-round picks in our previous mock draft before deciding to return to school. Only Yessoufou left himself the option to still enter this draft.

The best thing about this draft class if you don’t need the No. 1 pick to find a future franchise player. Just landing in the top-4 should get the job done. Here’s our latest 2026 NBA mock draft using the lottery standings as the order.

Let’s dive into one of the biggest themes to watch on lottery night.

NBA Draft 2026 lottery odds to land a top-4 pick

It feels like every team in the lottery would be thrilled just to land in the top-4 — that’s just how strong this draft class is. Here are the odds each lottery team has to land in the top-4, via Tankathon:

Caleb Wilson might be rising into the top-3 — or higher

Caleb Wilson didn’t play in the 2026 NCAA tournament for North Carolina after suffering a broken bone in his left hand in February and then a broken thumb in his right hand in March. Those injuries shouldn’t and reportedly haven’t dulled NBA interest. In the last few weeks, there have been reports that some teams value Wilson more than Duke forward Cameron Boozer, and that he could even be the second player taken on draft night.

Wilson has the single best highlight reel in the class for my money. Sit back and enjoy:

There’s a compelling sales pitch for the UNC forward. He’s a freak athlete at 6’10 who dunks everything (67 dunks in 24 games), he’s a high-motor defender who guard all over the floor, he’s a good passer, and he has an ability to create scoring opportunities for himself away from the rim with excellent mid-range shooting touch. The two big knocks on him are his shooting and ball handling. Wilson is not a good three-point shooter right now after making 25.9 percent of his 27 attempts from deep in college. He also isn’t really a viable on-ball creator because his lack of handle refinement limits where he can get on the floor. For now, he’s an electric play-finisher on offense and a buzzsaw on defense who should be an absolute terror in transition from day one.

I’ve been consistent that Boozer is my top player in the class. Boozer and Wilson were teammates on the Nike EYBL circuit for Nightrydas, and there was never any question on who the best player on the team was (it was Boozer). Wilson did arguably out-play him in the first Duke vs. North Carolina game this season, which was one of the best prospect matchups we got all year in college hoops.

I have liked Wilson for a while, even putting him on my 2023 list of the best NBA prospects in high school hoops. I’m considering sliding him up to No. 2 on my board, and I would not be shocked if he’s eventually picked in the top-3. Just moving up to No. 4 in the lottery — likely in position to draft Boozer or Wilson — would be an incredible boon for teams like the Bulls, Warriors, and Bucks, who all have long-shots odds entering the lottery. Wilson is so much better than the No. 4 overall prospect in a typical draft, and that’s a big reason why this class is so highly-touted.

Who moves up after the college basketball early entry deadline?

I thought Braylon Mullins and Patrick Ngongba were lottery-caliber talents. Instead, both are going back to UConn and Duke respectively. Thomas Haugh was considered a lottery pick on ESPN’s big board, but he’s going back to Florida for arguably the biggest NIL bag in college basketball history. Flory Bidunga’s decision to transfer to Louisville rather than enter the draft (though he is on the early entry list) is another hit to the depth of the class. It’s possible players like Tyler Tanner, Allen Graves, Juke Harris, Alijah Arenas, and Ebuka Okorie — who could all be drafted in the first round — eventually decide returning to school is their best decision. I named Graves as the best available player in the transfer portal, and there are some whispers that he could end up at Duke if he doesn’t enter the draft.

Here’s full early entry list, via Jeremy Woo:

The list of returners undeniably impacts the second half of the first round and the entirety of the second round. Expect plenty of seniors to hear their names once we get into the 20s, and new prospects are already emerging in pre-draft camps like the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. I enjoyed this YouTube breakdown from Ben Pfeifer on the biggest winners of the PIT.

I have Henri Veesaar moving up into the first-round in this mock draft thanks to all the players slated to return back to school. The North Carolina center was one of the my favorite potential second-rounders in this class for his interior scoring efficiency and three-point shooting improvement, but now he might move up by default. It feels like Christian Anderson is likely staying the draft too, but there’s only so many potential landing spots for smaller guards. I’ve also projected Spanish guard Sergio de Larrea as a first-round pick at times during the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to generate buzz again in the lead up to the draft.

The withdrawal deadline is only 10 days before the draft on June 13 at 5 p.m. ET. The draft board will continue to evolve until then.

Michigan’s 3 stars all end up in the lottery

The Wolverines were a wagon on their way to a college basketball national championship. While I would expect Elliott Cadeau to return to school, I think Morez Johnson will be joining Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg in the draft.

• Morez Johnson is a Chicagoland kid who didn’t leave the area for a prep school like so many of his highly touted peers. In this mock, Mara and Johnson are reunited with the Chicago Bulls, who earned a second top-15 pick via the Portland Trail Blazers thanks to their 2021 Lauri Markkanen trade.

NBA Draft 2026 lottery date, TV time, and streaming

Here’s what you need to know about this year’s draft lottery drawing:

Date: May 10

Time: 3 p.m. ET

TV: ABC/ESPN

Streaming: Watch ESPN