We’ve crossed the 10% mark of the 2025-26 NBA season, meaning we have some data on players who are seemingly enjoying a bit of a breakout.
To provide more of an overview, we’ve decided to break 10 players into two groups: All-Breakout First and Second Teams.
Two guards, two forwards and a center on each team. That is literally the only rule for this exercise.
Without further ado, let’s get to it.
(Joseph Raines/Yahoo Sports illustration)
First Team
C Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Oh, how the now-21-year-old toyed with us, didn’t he?
Duren was up and down his first three seasons and saw a bit of a decline last year, peppering his future with doubt about his ultimate ceiling.
This season, however, Duren has responded. Emphatically so. In just 29 minutes per game, the young center is averaging 19.4 points and 12 rebounds, has developed into the favorite passing target of Cade Cunningham and has taken a substantial defensive leap.
If this evolution of Duren is permanent — and we have no reason to doubt its legitimacy so far — Detroit’s ceiling rises significantly, as Cunningham needed an All-Star running mate. Duren’s production is heavily indicating he will be fighting for February’s All-Star honors.
F Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
Is this cheating? It might be, as Avdija balled out at the end of last season. However, late-season surges aren’t always real, and this season’s confirmation was needed to gauge just how good the 24-year-old is.
His numbers — 26.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists — only tell part of the story. Avdija is hitting more 3-pointers (2.6 per game compared to 1.7 last year) and getting to the line 8.1 times per game, while converting 85.4% of those attempts.
His movement and decisiveness have improved when he’s on the ball, but he’s bridging his creation capabilities with that of moving off the ball, as he’s being assisted on more shots this season than last, just by operating as a constant threat.
Perhaps Portland finally found the guy to build around?
F Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
While not a starter for Miami, the third-year wing has dramatically leveled up, breathing some life into a Heat season that projected to be uninspiring and, well, boring.
The Heat needed this from the 24-year-old, who struggled last year after a successful rookie season. Jaquez is now leading the charge off the bench by being both the primary shot-taker and overall decision-maker in the second unit, averaging 17 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.1 assists per night.
He still struggles as a long-range shooter (17.4% from 3), but he’s getting to the foul line — 3.8 attempts per game — and converting those at 82.6%, signaling that a 3-point shot might soon appear.
Regardless, he’s improved significantly, and that’s worth an inclusion on the first team.
G Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers
Look, it’s tough for anyone to make a breakout list after averaging 20.2 points. But if he suddenly jumps to a 28.3 average while adding 8.3 assists and 5.1 rebounds for good measure, then it’s worth it.
Reaves is making himself invaluable to the Lakers by filling in for the injured LeBron James and decisively taking over as the second-best player behind Luka Dončić.
At 27, Reaves is hitting his prime, and if he can maintain a high scoring average, with the ridiculous efficiency he’s sporting alongside it — 64.2% true shooting — then we’re looking at a player the Lakers will need to heavily prioritize next summer when he will opt out of his contract and hit the open market.
G Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs
Last year’s Rookie of the Year on a breakout list? Shenanigans!
Well, not quite. Because Castle is genuinely better. The 21-year-old might still be among the worst shooting guards in the NBA, which, yes, is concerning.
But push aside the shooting, and he does literally everything else well. His 18.9 points are accompanied by 7.9 assists, 6.1 rebounds and extremely potent point-of-attack defense, as well as a conversion rate of 76.7% near the rim, which is ridiculously good for a guard.
Castle is not viewed through the same optimistic lens as Houston’s Amen Thompson, but the two are closer in both production and influence than most are willing to admit. Having a multi-faceted guard who can also play the wing, play on the ball, influence the game defensively and has some floor vision is a luxury, and both Houston and San Antonio are benefiting.
Second Team
C Alexandre Sarr, Washington Wizards
At just 20 years old, Alex Sarr is leveling up his own game in Washington, on both sides of the ball.
This challenge, in and of itself, is extremely difficult. But when you add the fact that he struggled with efficiency and consistency in his rookie season, this leap is all the more impressive.
Sarr, who connected on just 39.4% of his shot attempts last year, is converting 53.1% this season, while also canning over 35.1% of his triples and 73.7% of his free throws — all strong efficiency indicators that he’ll be just fine. At 19.1 points per game, the Wizards are looking at a big man who can end up making a lot of scoring noise in the future.
Defensively, Sarr is far more effective. He’s fouling less and blocking more shots, and his defensive rebounding rate has also improved. But more than just the numbers, you can see a more calculated approach when he plays. His blocks are coming more naturally now, as opposed to last year when he was outright chasing them.
It’s all extremely encouraging.
F Trendon Watford, Philadelphia 76ers
All right, look, this writer might have some interest in Watford balling out, as he might have been said writer’s Most Improved Player pick last season. Oops.
However, he’s making up for it by being far more multifaceted now. The 25-year-old is averaging 9.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4 assists per game, with a 20-point, 17-rebound, 10-assist performance against Toronto on Nov. 8.
Watford won’t be asked to deliver major scoring games and has leaned into the versatility of his game, pushing the ball in transition, rebounding more and being far more selective with his shot, leading to a near-62% TS. He’s doing this on a Philadelphia team that’s better than expected, which will offer him a chance to rid himself of the reputation of being a big-stats/poor-team player. It’s time.
F Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls
While everyone is busy looking at Josh Giddey’s ridiculous numbers, Buzelis is flying a bit under the radar, and that’s a shame. The 21-year-old high-flyer is developing into a legitimate plug-and-play guy, with his off-ball movement continuing to be intriguing.
Buzelis has a modest raw line of 14.9 points, and 5.7 rebounds, but he’s one of those players who has an influence that’s larger than what his numbers might indicate.
He’s consistently changing the shots of opponents, especially near the basket. He’s often rebounding outside of his area, and his relentless attack pattern is forcing opposing defenses to make adjustments on the fly when he goes off-script.
It would behoove head coach Billy Donovan to get the sophomore a bit more involved in the bread-and-butter sets, as Buzelis’ ceiling seems to be fairly high.
G Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder
The rich get richer, but that’s what happens when you build a positive environment where players can develop at their own pace.
Mitchell, 23, was apparently ready to break out in his second season. He’s averaging 16.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.8 steals while keeping his turnovers low and being fairly mistake-free.
Mitchell is fluid in his own way and understands the benefit of playing off better players, leveraging the spacing they create and utilizing it to the best of his ability. While not a prolific long-range shooter, he’s good enough to punish teams for giving him space, just as he attacks close-outs effectively.
His numbers are bound to dip when Jalen Williams returns from injury, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t shown us what he’s capable of.
G Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets
Is a player averaging 12.2 points qualified for a breakout label? That’s probably for you to judge, but considering how rough his first season looked, Sheppard is doing some good things, especially in the shooting department, where he’s reminding people just how potent he is.
Sheppard has canned 50% of his 3-pointers this season on 5.6 nightly attempts, and his quick trigger is both fluid and, well, intoxicating to watch. His release is so consistent and so effortless, you get flashbacks to the days of Mark Price, Steve Nash and Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf.
Even if Sheppard never lives up to where he was drafted — third overall in 2024 — he will have a strong 15-year career based exclusively off his ability to create, take and make 3-pointers. That’s a win for both him and Houston, especially on the heels of Fred VanVleet’s season-ending knee injury.
Read the full article here
