March Madness bracket tracker: Who’s in, out and on men’s NCAA Tournament bubble

It is March and conference tournaments are around the corner.

In just over a week, it will be Selection Sunday for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, meaning college basketball fans are on the cusp of seeing the most exciting time of the sports calendar. Automatic bids for March Madness will start to be earned as soon as this weekend.

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However, while some programs have already likely punched their ticket for the Big Dance as “locks” for the NCAA Tournament with resumes that cannot be denied, others are using this week and conference championship week as a last ditch effort to build their resumes.

Of course, nothing makes that sweeter than trying to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament, while concluding your season against a bitter rival. Ask Kentucky fans, as they are still very much on the bubble, but will have to travel to Gainesville, Florida, for a matchup against the Gators.

Or Auburn fans, who have seen their team meltdown have to secure a spot in the Iron Bowl of basketball against Alabama.

Here’s a look at the latest NCAA Tournament preview, including bubble teams and locks to reach March Madness:

March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker

March Madness locks

Based on games through Tuesday, March 3

• Big Ten (7): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin

• Big 12 (6): Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU

• ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson and North Carolina State

• SEC (5): Florida, Vanderbilt Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas

• Big East (3): UConn, Villanova, St. John’s

• Other (3): Gonzaga, Utah State, Saint Louis

Just as was the case a week ago, thirty teams entered play on Tuesday, March 2, with a 99.8% chance or better to reach the Tournament, according to Bart Torvik’s “TourneyCast.” While significant games were played in the last week, the locks did not see any new teams climb into this category.

Torvik’s metrics are used in the NCAA’s BPI equation, alongside third-party analyst Ken Pomeroy, also referenced as KenPom by college basketball fans.

NCAA Tournament likely ins

• Big Ten (2): Indiana, UCLA

• SEC (4): Kentucky, Texas A&M, Texas, Georgia

• Other (2): Saint Mary’s, New Mexico

Entering the final week of the regular season, these are the teams that are “likely in” and have between a 70% and 98.9% chance to reach the NCAA Tournament, per Torvik.

NCAA Tournament bubble teams

• Big 12 (2): Texas Christian, Cincinnati

• Big Ten (3): Ohio State, Southern California

• Other (6): LIU, Howard, Santa Clara, San Diego State, UMBC, Miami (Ohio)

The three teams that are headed in the wrong direction in their chances of making the NCAA Tournament are Auburn, USC and San Diego State. The Tigers are 1-7 their last eight games and USC’s five-game losing streak puts them in more danger of missing the tournament now than they have been in previous weeks. Both likely need a deep run in their respective conference tournaments.

Meanwhile, Missouri and TCU are two teams that have helped their own cause over the last week to position themselves for a potential spot in the tournament.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket tracker: Who’s in, out and on NCAA bubble