When was the last time the Cincinnati Reds rolled into a season on such an upswing?
They made the playoffs last year. Even after they did that, they didn’t immediately lose half their roster to free agency, or have their minuscule budget force them to trade away key stars.
They’ve got a Hall of Fame manager at the helm, a starting rotation whose depth is the envy of the entire league, and a bona fide star in the making as their shortstop. They even brought back the world’s greatest gum-bubble blower.
Today the Cincinnati Reds will take on the Boston Red Sox at Great American Ball Park on Opening Day as the 2026 season officially gets under way. With that in mind, here are Five Dumb Predictions for the upcoming Reds season – some of which I truly hope are woefully inaccurate.
Matt McLain swipes 35 bags
All the way back in 2023, McLain swiped 14 bases in just 89 games as part of his ‘breakout’ before shoulder and oblique issues set back his entire career. Then, in 2025, he stole another 18 in 147 games despite barely keeping his OBP at the .300 level.
Now, though, he looks to be fully healthy once again, and I’m banking on him actually getting on base at a respectable clip for a full season – and that will provide him with ample opportunity to do more swiping. I also anticipate him swiping with more proclivity than ever before, and thus this here prediction.
It’s going to be a big, big year for Matt.
Sal Stewart leads the Reds in OPS
The Reds spent big (for them) this winter to sign veteran slugger Eugenio Suárez, who once posted a .930 OPS during his 49-homer campaign with them in 2019. The Reds also boast one Elly De La Cruz, a superstar in the making who has all the chops of a guy who could swap 50 homers with the flick of a wrist.
Still, there’s something about the approach of Cincinnati’s rookie 1B that just screams that he’ll be the battleship of their offense, a guy who once walked as much as he struck out in the minors in an homage to the guy who just gifted the franchise a Verdin clock after his own Hall of Fame career with them.
I think Sal’s patient approach pays off big time for him in 2026, with ample power shoved in there as well. The end result? A .290/.360/.490 season that sees him swat 25 homers and lead the Reds in OPS at season’s end.
We’re all sleeping on Tyler Stephenson
Contract years have ways of bringing out the absolute best in players, and Cincinnati catcher Tyler Stephenson just so happens to be in one of them in 2026. The former 1st round pick didn’t pick up a contract extension from the Reds (despite Jose Trevino getting one upon being dealt to the club), and top prospect Alfredo Duno looms large as he approaches the upper minors.
The writing, as they say, is very much on the wall for ol’ Ty Steves. His time with the Reds appears to be dwindling.
Injuries have set him back in most every year, as they are wont to do for catchers, but I think things truly begin to come together for him in a platform 2026. That won’t mean the Reds will jump to sign him long-term, but it will put him in a great spot to land a big deal with someone else when next winter rolls around after he mashes his way into free agency.
I see a 23 homer season for him in ‘26, which will set a new career best before he heads off to free agency and is paid to be a professional baseball player by another team.
Ke’Bryan Hayes hits a homer
Maybe even two. I’ll go out on a limb and say he hits four.
The Reds valiantly miss the playoffs
It’s tough out there, folks. It’s especially tough out in the rough and tumble land of the National League Central division, where the Milwaukee Brewers have perfected their own art of player development and the Chicago Cubs have finally leaned-in to their ability to outspend their peers.
Heck, even the Pittsburgh Pirates have figured out the whole ‘draft good players’ angle to the game.
I think the 2026 Reds end up doing a lot of the same things they did just one year ago when they won 83 games and snuck into the playoffs as the New York Mets collapsed. I just worry that won’t be good enough to sneak into the postseason again in 2026, as the rest of the National League tide has risen faster than they have.
I see another 83 wins – maybe even 84! – but I don’t think that’s going to be good enough for them to make the playoffs, as Hunter Greene’s absence across the first half of the season ends up being the single most deciding factor for this club in the history books.
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