No matter what fantasy sport you play, there are always players who overperform to start the season. In fantasy baseball, we have to approach these surprising starts a bit differently given how long the season is compared to other sports like football and basketball. And it isn’t just individual performers; we also must account for teams that are either struggling or playing well through the early going.
In this piece, we’ll look at some surprising stats from the first month of baseball, and share some takeaways to help you moving forward.
There’s usually a surprising name atop the leaderboard for batting average early each season. But if you asked anyone if it would be Pages, they’d probably call you crazy after last postseason. The Dodgers won the World Series, and it wasn’t thanks to Pages, who hit a cool .078 in 55 plate appearances in 16 postseason games. He did post 27 HRs with 86 RBI and a .774 OPS last regular season and is in his age-25 season, but still, this is a pretty big jump year-over-year.
So far in 2026, Pages has been a bit lucky; his BABIP is .439, which means we will certainly see regression. But it may not be that much, given his xBA is still .302, in the 93rd percentile per Baseball Savant. He started the season super hot with 15 hits in his first eight appearances. Since then, Pages has the same amount of hits in 16 games.
For fantasy baseball managers who lucked into Pages at a high ADP, do you hold or sell high? Either option feels safe. Pages has moved up in the best lineup in baseball. He should continue to get plenty of RBI opportunities and his slugging should maintain a respectable level as we get deeper into the spring. His bat speed (65th percentile) and barrel% (49th) are concerning, however. But again, even with regression, he’s still pacing toward career bests pretty much across the board.
If the AL Cy Young were given out today, it would go to Soriano, who has been otherworldly through six starts for a competitive Angels squad. The veteran hurler made history, posting the lowest ERA through six starts (minimum 30 IP) of any pitcher since 1913.
I actually held off on writing this section in advance to see how Soriano’s Wednesday start went. All he did was toss five scoreless innings against the Blue Jays with four Ks to lower his ERA a few more points.
But that start on Wednesday should give some cause for concern. The Blue Jays got to Soriano a bit but luck played a factor. Soriano’s BABIP against is .205, which should correct itself; his career BABIP is .288. His xERA is also 2.70, per Baseball Savant — again, an indicator we will eventually see some regression toward the mean.
Essentially, right now, Soriano is a sinker baller who is experiencing the far end of the positive spectrum when it comes to balls in play. He’s also throwing nearly 95 pitches per start, which doesn’t feel sustainable for someone throwing as hard as Soriano does.
So should you sell high or hold on to the Angels’ ace?
My issue is the schedule. If the Halos’ rotation isn’t disrupted at all, Soriano’s next handful of starts are as follows: @ CWS, vs. CWS, @ TOR, @ CLE, vs. ATH. All five of those starts are very winnable, so it isn’t crazy to think Soriano carries a sub-1.00 ERA into late May. Still, Soriano feels like a good sell-high candidate if you have good depth at pitcher. He’ll come back down to earth and you were able to take advantage of the peak, rather than have to endure the decline.
Nationals/Pirates Team OPS: .746/.727
These two teams weren’t going to be toward the bottom of the league forever. Both Washington and Pittsburgh are off to surprising starts and it’s mostly thanks to improved offenses (though the Pirates rank top-five in team ERA). The Nats finished 24th in team OPS last season while the Bucs were dead last.
The Nationals lead the majors in runs scored through the first month, made even more impressive when you look at the teams they’ve played so far: Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Pirates and currently the Braves. James Wood looks like he may contend for the NL HR title (if not the entire league) while CJ Abrams could get himself into the NL MVP conversation if the Nats keep this up. While Dylan Crews isn’t in the majors, another young OFer has been thriving in Daylen Lile, who has been hitting mostly cleanup. He’s starting to hit for power with four doubles and three HRs in his past 11 games.
As for the Pirates, it’s more balanced with the rotation performing well, anchored by Paul Skenes. But the lineup is shaping up nicely and should only get better as rookie Konnor Griffin gets more acclimated. Oneil Cruz appears ready for a true breakout season at age-27. While his fielding leaves plenty to be desired, his Baseball Savant page is eye-opening. Cruz ranks in the 98th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel%, hard hit% and bat speed. He’s still striking out at a high rate but when he’s making contact, it’s doing damage. Ryan O’Hearn has also been a nice surprise out of the cleanup slot, hitting .325, four homers and 16 RBI.
If you can grab a piece of these teams — either via trade or through the waiver wire — it may not be a bad investment.
Mets/Mariners Team HRs: 17/25
I wanted to differentiate the stats but both the Mets and Mariners are toward the bottom of the league in offense through the first month. You could group the Phillies in with the Mets since they’re off to a worse start but we wanted to include an NL and AL team. Last season, both these teams finished in the top five in homers. The power hasn’t quite been there in 2026.
Anyway, we’ll start with New York, which is a complete mess right now. The Mets had dropped 12 games in a row going into Wednesday night, the longest losing streak for the franchise since 2004. Sure, Juan Soto had been out the past 15 games due to a calf injury but this lineup was viewed as very deep going into the season. To many, it was viewed as potentially the best in the majors. So far, that hasn’t been the case — and it isn’t because Soto has been out.
Francisco Alvarez is the only one who has been slightly respectable (.254 BA, .841 OPS). Bo Bichette, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos are all at an OPS well below the league standard. I guess the one positive is that things can only get better, right? Soto should bring stability and the Mets’ schedule is pretty soft the next few weeks until mid-May. And hey, they won on Wednesday!
In Seattle, same deal — the M’s were expected to be a top offense in the AL. While 25 homers is middle-of-the-pack right now, the Mariners are in the bottom third in runs (101) and OPS (.683).
Why is this? Well, you could point to reigning HR champ Cal Raleigh.
We all knew regression was coming for Raleigh but he could end up being one of the bigger busts in fantasy baseball. He enters Thursday as the C18 in head-to-head category leagues on Yahoo and has had a tough start up until the past few games. It feels like he’s turning a corner with HRs in three straight, but his bat speed is down to the 82nd percentile and his batting run value on Baseball Savant right now is very poor in the 15th percentile.
Again, things should get better (and they already appear to be on the up), but Raleigh would really need to catch fire to bring back first- or second-round value in fantasy this season. Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor are also off to slow starts, which have aided in Seattle’s 11-15 record.
The M’s should bounce back and Raleigh already looks like he’s going to make me eat my words here. Targeting Seattle batters at low cost feels like a decent play.
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