Opening Day is upon us.
The march to the World Series begins tonight, when the New York Yankees take on the San Francisco Giants. More teams join the action on Thursday, and by this weekend all 30 MLB teams will have begun the long journey to October.
Unfortunately for some teams, that journey may end quicker than hoped.
Ahead of the start to the 2026 MLB season, let’s take a look at each team’s chances of winning a World Series, by stacking the teams in tiers and ranking their chances from the Colorado Rockies to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Humphrey Bogart tier
30. Colorado Rockies
29. Chicago White Sox
28. Washington Nationals
27. Los Angeles Angels
26. Miami Marlins
25. St. Louis Cardinals
Baseball’s rich history offers many memorable quotes.
We begin our look at all 30 teams with one from Humphrey Bogart, the legendary actor who had this to say about the game. Or, at least attending a game.
“A hotdog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.”
It might be a long season for these six teams, but still, their fans will get to sit in the sun and enjoy those dogs, at least a few times this season.
The true longshots
24. Minnesota Twins
23. Tampa Bay Rays
22. Athletics
21. Arizona Diamondbacks
Each team in this tier could make a run at the playoffs if things break their way. For the Twins, if they can get a healthy Byron Buxton for 162 games, the lineup builds from there. The Rays get to move back home and could put up some impressive numbers in that park, particularly Junior Caminero. The young talent on the Athletics roster could surprise this season, particularly since they get to play their home games in Sutter Health Park again this year, which could lead to massive numbers for Nick Kurtz.
The Diamondbacks need pitching help, but Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo form a rather potent trio.
The Pittsburgh Pirates
20. Pittsburgh Pirates
That’s right, we are putting the Pittsburgh Pirates into a tier of their own.
The Pirates might be the most fascinating team in baseball. In Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh has a bonafide ace. While the Pirates had arguably — or inarguably — the worst offense in baseball a season ago, they added Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, and Ryan O’Hearn in the offseason which should bolster production. And waiting in the wings? Two rising stars in Jhostynxon Garcia and Konnor Griffin.
In fact, other analysts have the Pirates pegged for a massive step forward. MLB.com contributor Travis Sawchik believes Pittsburgh will score 150+ more runs this season than in 2025, while FanGraphs has Pittsburgh slated for 136 more runs.
That kind of improvement in production could see the Pirates finish with a winning record for the first time in a decade, and reach the playoffs as well. In fact, FanGraphs has Pittsburgh finishing at 82-80, making a playoff berth still a longshot, but a possibility.
Something Pirates fans have not seen in a long time.
Playoffs?
19. Cleveland Guardians
18. San Francisco Giants
17. Kansas City Royals
16. Cincinnati Reds
15. San Diego Padres
14. Texas Rangers
13. Houston Astros
12. Baltimore Orioles
11. Detroit Tigers
10. Milwaukee Brewers
These are all teams that should make a playoff push this season, and at least be in the list of “buyers” come MLB trade deadline time.
Leading the way are the Detroit Tigers, led by ace Tarik Skubal, who is seeking his third-straight Cy Young Award. Detroit also added workhorse Framber Valdez, and they sport a bullpen that should earn them some wins over the course of the season. The Orioles are another fun team to watch in this tier, as Baltimore loaded up in the offseason with names such as Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley, Shane Baz, and Andrew Kittredge. There is still a sense around the Inner Harbor that the Orioles need to add a true ace at the deadline, but a sense of urgency has finally settled in around this organization.
Then there are the Brewers, who finished with the best record in baseball a year ago.
National League Contenders
9. Atlanta Braves
8. Chicago Cubs
7. Philadelphia Phillies
Here are three teams that should not be satisfied with getting in, but should be thinking about winning the league.
The Atlanta Braves are poised for a full year with a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr., on a roster with talent beyond the star outfielder. The Chicago Cubs have a roster filled with young talent and added Alex Bregman in the offseason. Then there are the Philadelphia Phillies, who have won 90 games in each of the past four seasons, look to have a rotation built to win in the fall and into the playoffs, and could have their next big star in Justin Crawford, who made the Opening Day roster.
American League Contenders
6. Boston Red Sox
5. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Seattle Mariners
Red Sox fans frustrated by the organization missing out on both Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso — and seeing Alex Bregman leave town for Chicago — soothed their nerves by watching Roman Anthony belt bombs in the World Baseball Classic. But can this offense hit enough to make a deep run in the fall?
Toronto also saw a key departure, with homegrown star Bo Bichette leaving for the New York Mets. But the Blue Jays brought in Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers, adding those players to a team that was just a few feet away from perhaps winning a World Series. Of course, the news that. Trey Yesavage is starting the year on the IL (with no timetable on Shane Bieber as well) is not the best way to begin a season.
As for the Mariners, who pushed the Blue Jays to Game 7 in the ALCS, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Julio Rodriguez are back. And it is just a matter of time until top prospect Colt Emerson joins them.
In a New York Minute
3. New York Mets
2. New York Yankees
Now we get to talk about the two teams in New York.
The Mets made the big splash ahead of 2025, inking Juan Soto to a record-breaking deal in December of 2024. While his slow start changed the narrative a bit, Soto still finished the year with 43 home runs and a slash line of .263/.396/.525.
But when the playoffs began, that expensive roster was watching from home.
That led to even more additions, as the Mets added Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, and Devin Williams. While Pete Alonso is now in Baltimore, this is a potent lineup given the additions around Soto and Francisco Lindor. And with Kodai Senga looking strong so far this spring, expectations should be high in Queens.
As for the Yankees, this was a rather unconventional offseason for Brian Cashman and company. Rather than make big moves of his own, Cashman tinkered only marginally with a roster that won 93 games a year ago. Getting both. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon back should help as well, and given the talent already in the building, you can understand Cashman’s approach.
The Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Two consecutive titles, a drive for a third, the best player on the planet, and the highest payroll in the game?
Yes, until we see reason to stop believing, the Los Angeles Dodgers are your favorites for another World Series.
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