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There are just three games in the Association today (apparently, some other basketball games are getting all the attention today), but I’ve still found some value in the NBA player props market.
My NBA picks for Saturday, April 4 cover all three of today’s matchups — see why I’m targeting rebounds in what should be an absolute slopfest, Wemby to focus more on defense than offense, and Daniss Jenkins continuing to cash the Over on his threes.
Best NBA player props today
|
Player |
Pick |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Jaime Jaquez Jr. |
o5.5 rebounds |
+110 |
|
Victor Wembanyama |
u28.5 points |
-112 |
|
Daniss Jenkins |
o1.5 threes |
-120 |
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Prop #1: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 5.5 rebounds (+110)
+110 at bet365
What can we expect with mediocre (or outright) bad teams playing? That’s right: Bad offense! The Miami Heat sit 20th in the league in field goal percentage, with Washington 23rd, with plenty of missed shots up for grabs on both sides.
The big difference here is that the Wiz are also dead last in rebounding percentage, meaning we should look to Miami to clean the glass — and Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been doing just that, topping this number in three straight games.
His numbers took a dip during a four-game stretch a few weeks ago (where his minutes were limited due to a hip ailment), but looking at when he’s had regular run (27+ minutes), he’s cashed this prop in five of his last seven games — and our NBA player prop projections put him right at six boards today.
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Where to watch: MNMT, FDSN SU
Prop #2: Victor Wembanyama Under 28.5 points (-112)
-112 at bet365
Victor Wembanyama is coming off back-to-back 41-point outings, but those were against the depleted Warriors and hapless Bulls.
Neither team has a truly threatening interior presence, and today he’s squaring off with three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Wemby will have to spend more time and effort defending (and dealing with the physicality of the much thicker Jokic), and I’m anticipating it will come at the expense of his scoring production.
The Spurs star went Under this number in six of his previous seven games before his 40+ outbursts, and our NBA player prop projections have Wemby pegged for just 24.4 points today.
A number of other books have moved to 27.5 already (or have higher juice on u28.5), giving us a little bit of value on the number as well.
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Where to watch: Prime Video
Prop #3: Daniss Jenkins Over 1.5 threes (-120)
-120 at bet365
Daniss Jenkins has stepped up in a big way for the Pistons since Cade Cunningham has been sidelined with a collapsed lung, getting moved into the starting lineup and seeing his usage expand from around 20 per game to 36 minutes per night.
His scoring has also skyrocketed, averaging more than 19 points per game in that span, while hitting just over two threes per game (on almost five attempted) and cashing this prop in six of 10 games since becoming the starting PG.
Jenkins and Detroit will face Philadelphia tonight, which is giving up the most 3-point attempts since March 1 — and could have some tired legs on defense after grinding through a tough matchup with Minnesota last night.
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Where to watch: FDSN DT, NBCSP
These props are available now at bet365, one of our best betting sites.
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