There was a time, in the history of baseball and its Hall of Fame, in which certain numbers almost brought automatic inclusion into the game’s most exclusive clubs. Things like 3,000 hits, 300 wins, and of course, 500 home runs provided a clear pathway to Cooperstown. For the 2026 season, the Yankees have a couple of players who could make significant headway with regard specifically to that 500 home run mark. Both Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge have put themselves in good position to reach the number before the end of their careers, and in turn, to reach Cooperstown.
The two Yankee sluggers, assuming all goes well, will present very different cases to Hall voters when their day comes. We’ll start with Judge, who at this point has the much easier path to enshrinement, and perhaps to the 500 home run mark.
As unfortunate as it is to consider, Aaron Judge is not exactly a spring chicken. 2026 will be his age-34 season, and his 11th in the Major Leagues. On the bright side, that is about the only thing holding back the three-time MVP from hitting host of huge milestones. Since turning 30, Judge has done things on a baseball field that can only be compared to names like Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds. At this point in his career, number 99 has four different seasons with 50 or more homers (including one with 62), and has posted an OPS+ of at least 210 in three of the last four seasons. It has been said time and again, but it is impossible to argue that we are seeing an all-time great at the peak of his powers.
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With regards to his reaching of 500 homers, the path is fairly straight forward. Judge has six years remaining on the contract he signed with New York prior to the 2023 season, and for the argument’s sake, we’ll assume that brings him to the end of his playing career. With 368 career homers already in the bag, Judge would need to average 22 home runs per season for the remainder of the deal. That is easier said than done, but Judge benefits greatly from the fact that he could easily knock out more than two thirds of the 132 homers he needs to join the exclusive club in the next two seasons. In fact, he’s averaged well over 50 over the last four years, and nearly 60 per 162 games in that stretch. No matter how the final few years of the contract look for Judge, he can easily do much of the needed damage in the next two or three seasons.
As far as his Hall of Fame case stands, the rest would just be gravy at that point, as his case is already nearly settled after his first decade in the league.
The case becomes a little bit blurrier when it comes to his teammate Giancarlo Stanton. For the full-time designated hitter, the greatest enemy is simply getting enough games to reach the all-important 500 mark. This has been a theme for much of his career, as he’s averaged around 28 homers per season during his career, but that number jumps all the way to 43 on a per-162-game basis.
This issue has become even more pressing since joining the Yankees in 2018, as he’s topped 140 games just one time, and has topped out at 114 over the last four seasons. It appeared, for a stretch, that he would also be battling greatly diminished performance for the final stretch of his career. He hit below his standards back in 2022, before posting his first ever below-average offensive season in ‘23. He was slightly better in 2024, though he still played in just 114 games, and left plenty of room for reasonable doubt.
Last season, however, Stanton provided some hope. It was actually a concerning year on one front, considering that he played in just 77 games, but it was positive in another: he can still rack up dingers with the very best of ‘em. In an abbreviated 281 plate appearance season, Stanton found the time to pummel 24 homers, and it wasn’t just the long ball either. The 158 OPS+ he posted in 2025 was his best mark since winning MVP with the Marlins back in 2017.
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Despite the continued injury trouble, 2025 was the best that we’ve seen of Giancarlo Stanton in pinstripes. And although remaining on the field will always be the chief concern, his renaissance certainly rejuvenated his chase for 500 homers and possible enshrinement.
Stanton has two years remaining on his enormous 13-year deal, which brings him through his age-37 season. The most realistic route to 500 homers is that he continues doing what he has been — playing in 100-110 games and hitting 20-25 home runs (he needs 47). Those aren’t exactly sky-high expectations, and they are certainly within reach for Stanton. Even if he doesn’t reach 500 under this contract, it feels reasonable to think he’d latch on somewhere after in an effort to chip away at the milestone.
Assuming he does eventually get there, his Hall case will be far more consideration-worthy than Judge’s. Even if things go well, it would be pretty unlikely for him to finish above 50 fWAR, and with much of his career coming as a designated hitter, the 500 home run selling point may be a bit harder to convince voters with.
Stanton has been a terrific hitter for his entire career regardless of the finish, but if he does reach that former auto-enshrinement number, things could get interesting once his name comes up on Hall of Fame ballots.
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